Gold VS Bond: What Is the Safe Haven for the Indonesian and Malaysian Capital Market?

Robiyanto Robiyanto
(Submitted 28 August 2017)
(Published 30 December 2018)

Abstract


This study scrutinizes the potency of gold and bonds as safe haven assets for the Indonesian and Malaysian capital markets, because some previous studies have been undertaken in established market settings. The research period for this study was from June 2008 to September 2016. The quantile regression technique was used to analyze the data. The results of this study indicated that gold did not have a role as a safe haven for the Indonesian capital market, but did have a role as the safe haven for the Malaysian capital market. This study also found that Indonesian government bonds, Malaysian government bonds, and Malaysian corporate bonds could not act as safe haven assets. In contrast, corporate bonds in Indonesia had the potency to perform the function of a safe haven for stocks on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. 


Keywords


Safe Haven; Hedge; Gold; Indonesia Corporate Bond; Indonesia Government Bond; Malaysia Corporate Bond; Malaysia Government Bond

Full Text: PDF

DOI: 10.22146/gamaijb.27775

References


Agyei-Ampomah, S., D. Gounopoulos, and K. Mzaouz. 2013. Does gold offer a better protection against sovereign debt crisis than other metals. In EFMA.

Arouri, M. E. H., A. Lahiani, and D. K. Nguyen. 2014. World gold prices and stock returns in China: Insights for hedging and diversification strategies. Working Paper.

Baur, D. G. 2013. Gold-fundamental drivers and asset allocation. In SSRN: Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2240831.

Baur, D. G., and B. M. Lucey. 2010. Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. The Financial Review 45:217-229. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x.

Baur, D. G., and T. K. McDermott. 2009. Is gold a safe haven?: International evidence. Institute for International Integration Studies (IIIS) Discussion Paper (310).

Baur, D. G., and T. K. J. McDermott. 2012. Safe Haven Assets and Investor Behaviour Under Uncertainty. Sydney: UTS, School of Business, Finance Discipline Group.

Beber, A., M. W. Brandt, and K. A. Kavajecz. 2006. Flight-to-quality or flight-to-liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area bond market. In NBER Working Paper Series: Electronic copy available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12376. http://www.nber.org/papers/w12376.

Bianconi, M., J. A. Yoshino, and M. O. Machado de Sousa. 2013. BRIC and the U.S. financial crisis: An empirical investigation of stock and bond markets. Emerging Markets Review no. 14:76-109. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2012.11.002.

BNM. 2018. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - Conventional. Bank Negara Malaysia 2018 [cited May 15 2018]. Available from http://www.bnm.gov.my.

Capie, F., T. C. Mills, and G. Wood. 2005. Gold as a hedge against the dollar. Journal of International Financial Markets Institution and Money 15: 343-352. doi: 10.1016/j.intfin.2004.07.002.

Cappiello, L., R. F. Engle, and K. Sheppard. 2006. Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns. Journal of Financial Econometrics 4 (4): 537-572. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbl005.

Chiang, S-M, C-T. Lin, and C-M. Huang. 2013. The relationships among stocks, bonds and gold: Safe haven, hedge or neither? In International Conference on Technology Innovation and Industrial Management. Phuket, Thailand.

Christiansen, C., and A. Ranaldo. 2007. Realized bond-stock correlation: Macroeconomic announcement effect. Journal of Futures Markets 27: 439-469. doi: 10.1002/fut.20258.

Chua, J. H., G. Sick, and R. S. Woodward. 1990. Diversifying with gold stocks. Financial Analysts Journal 46 (4): 76-79. doi: https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v46.n4.76.

Ciner, C., C. Gurdgiev, and B. M. Lucey. 2012. Hedges and safe havens – An examination of stocks, bonds, oil, gold and the dollar. In Working Paper.

Coudert, V., and H. Raymond-Feingold. 2011. Gold and financial assets: Are there any safe havens in bear markets? Economics Bulletin 31 (2): 1613-1622.

Dee, J., L. Li, and Z. Zheng. 2013. Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? Evidence from inflation and stock market. International Journal of Development and Sustainability 2 (1): 1-16.

Faubert, V.. 2012. Is gold still a safe haven? Tresor-Economics, Ministere de L’Economie Des Finances et de L’Industrie (April ): 101.

Fen, A. B., L. S. Yee, L. C. Ling, O. C. Cher, and S. K. Yean. 2014. The determinants of Malaysia government bond yields from year 1996:Q1 to 2013:Q4. Thesis, Faculty of Business and Finance Department of Finance, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman.

Figuerola-Ferretti, I., and J. Gonzalo. 2010. Price discovery and hedging properties of gold and silver markets. In Working Paper.

Flavin, T. J., C. E. Morley, and E. Panopoulou. 2014. Identifying safe haven assets for equity investors through an analysis of the stability of shock transmission. Journal of International Financial Markets,Institutions and Money 33: 137-154. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.08.001.

Ghazali, M. F., H-H. Lean, and Z. Bahari. 2013. Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An empirical evidence of gold and stocks in Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Society 14 (3): 428-443.

Ghazali, M. F., H. H. Lean, and Z. Bahari. 2015. Sharia compliant gold investment in Malaysia: Hedge or safe vaven? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2014.12.005.

Greer, R. J. 1997. What is an asset class, anyway? Journal of Portfolio Management 23 (2): 86-91. doi: 10.3905/jpm.23.2.86.

Heng, N. V. , A. M. Nassir, M. Ariff, and S. Mohamad. 2005. Predictive power of forward rates: Evidence from Malaysian government securities (MGS) market. Investment Management and Financial Innovations 2: 61-71.

Hillier, D., P. Draper, and R. Faff. 2006. Do precious metals shine? An investment perspective. Financial Analysts Journal 62 (3/4): 98-106. doi: https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v62.n2.4085.

Hoang, T-H-V, H. Hooi Lean, and W-K. Wong. 2015. Is Gold Good for portfolio diversification? A stochastic dominance analysis of the Paris Stock Exchange.” International Review of Financial Analysis. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2014.11.020.

Ibrahim, M. H. 2012. Financial risk market and gold investment in an emerging market: The case of Malaysia. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management Research News 5 (1): 25-34. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/17538391211216802.

Ibrahim, M. H., and A. H. Baharom. 2012. The role of gold in financial market: A malaysian perspective. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research.
Joy, M. 2011. Gold and the US dollar: Hedge or haven? Finance Research Letters 8: 120-131. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2011.01.001.

Kaul, A., and S. Sapp. 2006. Y2K fears and safe haven trading of the U.S. dollar. Journal of International Money and Finance 25 (5):760-779 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2006.04.003.

Krondahl, E., and O. Lindahl. 2012. Perceptual Safe Havens: A Study of Gold, Oil, Palladium, Wheat, Bonds, USD, and Stocks. Degree Project Master of Science in Business and Economics, School of Economics and Management, Department of Business Administration, Lund University.

Kumar, D. 2014. Return and volatility transmission between gold and stock sectors: Application of portfolio management and hedging effectiveness. IIMB Management Review 26 (1): 5-16. doi: 10.1016/j.iimb.2013.12.002.

Marzo, M., and P. Zagaglia. 2010. Gold and the U.S. dollar: Tales from the turmoil. The Rimini Centre For Economic Analysis Working Paper 10 (8).

Maslov, S., and B. M. Rochner. 2004. The conundrum of stock versus bond prices. Physica A 335 (1-2): 164-182. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2003.11.031.

Nastou, B. 2013. Thinking about asset alocation in 2013. Investment Insight (February): 1-6.

OJK. 2017. Statistik Pasar Modal 2017.

Parkyn, O., and T. Vehbi. 2013. The effects of fiscal policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR model with debt constraints. New Zealand Treasury Working Paper.

Putra, M. P. S., A. D. R. Atahau, and R. Robiyanto. 2018. Cross–asset class portfolio between gold and stocks in Indonesia. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets 10 (1): 69-81. doi: 10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss1.art8.

Ratner, M., and S. Klein. 2008. The portfolio implications of gold investment. Journal of Investing 17 (1): 77-87. doi: https://doi.org/10.3905/joi.2008.701958

Roache, S. K., and M. Rossi. 2010. The effects of economic news on commodity prices. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 50 (3): 377-385. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2010.02.007.

Robiyanto, R. 2018a. The effect of gold price changes, USD/IDR exchange rate changes and Bank Indonesia (BI) rate on Jakarta Composite Index (JCI)’s return and Jakarta Islamic Index (JII)’s return. Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan 20 (1): 45-52. doi: https://doi.org/10.9744/jmk.20.1.45-52.

Robiyanto, R. 2018b. Indonesian Stock Market’s dynamic integration with Asian Stock Markets and World Stock Markets. Jurnal Pengurusan 52: 181-192. doi: 10.17576/pengurusan-2018-52-15.

Robiyanto, R. 2018c. Testing of the gold’s role as a safe haven and hedge for sharia stocks in Indonesia. Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah 10 (2): 255-266. doi: 10.15408/aiq.v10i2.6527.

Robiyanto, R., and S. Puryandani. 2015. The Javanese lunar calendar’s effect on Indonesian stock returns. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 17 (2): 125-137. doi: 10.22146/gamaijb.6906.

Robiyanto, R., S. Wahyudi, and I. R. D. Pangestuti. 2017a. Testing commodities as safe haven and hedging instrument on ASEAN’s five stock markets. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan 10 (2): 231-238. doi: 10.24843/JEKT.2017.v10.i02.p11

Robiyanto, R., S. Wahyudi, and I. R. D. Pangestuti. 2017b. The volatility–variability hypotheses testing and hedging effectiveness of precious metals for the Indonesian and Malaysian capital markets. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 19 (2): 167-192. doi: 10.22146/gamaijb.26260.

Spall, J. 2011. How to Profit in Gold: Professional Tips and Strategies for Today’s Ultimate Safe Haven Investment. New York: McGraw-Hill Companies.

Sujit, K. S., and B. R. Kumar. 2011. Study on dynamic relationship among gold price, oil price, exchange rate and stock market returns. International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research (2): 145-165.

Sumner, S. W., R. Johnson, and L. Soenen. 2010. Spillover effects among gold, stocks, and bonds. Journal of CENTRUM Cathedra 3 (2): 109-120.

Thillainathan, R. 1996. Malaysia’s bond market: The further reforms required to escape underdevelopment. ASEAN Economic Bulletin 13 (1): 95-113.

Tkacz, G. 2007. Gold prices and inflation. Bank of Canada Working Paper: 35.
Tomak, S. 2013. Is gold safe-haven? An analysis of the relationships between stock, bond, foreign exchange, and gold returns. Cag University Journal of Social Sciences 10 (1): 21-36.

Tully, E., and B. M. Lucey. 2007. A power GARCH examination of the gold market. Research in International Business and Finance 21: 316-325. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2006.07.001.

Universitas Gadjah Mada. 2015. Financial market update: Tim riset FMU BNI 46 FEB. 2015. Financial Outlook 2016.

Wang, L. 2012. Investment in gold: An empirical study of the gold return from 90s to 21st. Working Paper. Copenhagen Business School.

Worthington, A. C., and M. Pahlavani. 2007. Gold investment as an inflationary hedge: Cointegration evidence with allowance for endogenous structural breaks. Applied Financial Economics Letters 3 (4): 259-262. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17446540601118301.

Woschnagg, E., and J. Cipan. 2004. Evaluating forecast accuracy. In Working Paper. homepage.univie.ac.at/robert.kunst/procip.pdf.

Zhou, Y. 2014. Modeling the joint dynamics of risk-neutral stock index and bond yield volatilities. Journal of Banking and Finance 38: 216-228. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.10.010.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Copyright (c) 2019 Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.