THE DETERMINANTS OF PADDY FIELD CONVERSION IN TIMOR ISLAND , EAST NUSA TENGGARA PROVINCE ( NTT )

The objectives of this research are: (1) to investigate the trend of paddy fields on Timor Island and (2) to know the determinants of the conversion of paddy fields on Timor Island. Timor Island consists of several districts such as Kupang District, South Central Timor District (TTS), North Central Timor District (TTU), Belu District and Kupang City. In fact, they are the main rice-producing areas in the Timor Island, so they have an important role in the supplying sufficient for locals. However, the regions are slowly started to be converted to non-paddy-field use such as new settlements and other infrastructure development along with the current economic development. The basic method used in this research was descriptive analysis and the location of research was determined purposively because this location was based on the consideration that there was a high growth of non-agricultural sectors in Timor Island; making it vulnerable to the reduction of paddy field area. The data used was secondary data (2005-2014). The results showed that (1) the trend of rice field in Timor Island is not significant with time variable. (2) The analysis of determinants of paddy field area in Timor Island using multiple linear regression with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method indicated that the factors affecting the conversion of wetland in Timor Island significantly are the variable of building area and the number of industries.


INTRODUCTION
A plot of land can be used for variety of purposes that are often non-compatible.
Hence, it emerges competition in various alternative uses and allocations in its utilization (Anwar, 1993).In agriculture, land is the most important resource, both for farmers and for agricultural development.
It is based on the fact that in Indonesian agricultural activities are still based on land.Indonesia as an agricultural country, which is set in Law No. 41 of 2009 on Sustainable Food-Crop Agricultural Land Protection, needs to ensure the sustainable provision of agricultural land as a source of decent work and livelihood for humanity by maintaining the balance, progress, and unity of the national economy.However, with the economic and industrial development as well as the population growth in Indonesia have caused the conversion, fragmentation, and degradation of agricultural land that threatens the territory's carrying capacity nationally in maintaining self-reliance, food security and sovereignty.Maintaining the balance, progress, and unity of the national economy.Irawan et al (2002: 119) asserted that the conversion of agricultural land in essence occurs as a result of competition in land use between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors.The constant availability of land in a region, faced with rapidly increasing demands, leads to an interaction between demand and supply of land, then generating land-use patterns that lead to profitable activities (Nasoetion & Winoto, 1996).
Agricultural land, especially rice fields, has economically high selling price because it is usually located in certain developing location.However, for farmers and farm laborers, the conversion of paddy fields is a problem because they cannot switch jobs.Farmers tend to be trapped by the limited employment opportunities which could lead to further complicated social problems.
Kata Kunci : konversi lahan, regresi berganda, tren a major concern, given that the shrinking of paddy fields due to land conversion causes the area of rice harvest to fall by 2.2% per year and the rate of growth of paddy production in densely populated areas decreased by 1.1 % per year.This situation suggests that efforts to increase rice production should be encouraged (Ken, 2010).Currently, the food consumption pattern in Timor Island that originally consumes non-rice food (local food such as maize and tubers) is starting to shift to rice as a single staple food (Leki, 2010).It is in accordance with Mubyarto (1977), who stated that in the long run rice will remain as the staple food of the Indonesian population, so that rice production policy will remain as the core policy in agricultural development.Wet land conversion to nonagricultural purposes is a choice taken by farmersrationaay within a circumtances where the size of land holding is squeezing over time, and where farm activities could not give adequate returns (Ken, 2001).Some of the consequences of the rate of economic growth that is the increase in population concentration has a great consequence on the provision of facilities, which in turn brings great consequences to the use of space or land serta housing demand and economic center growth also accelerated as urban development began to reach the suburbs (Budi, 2015).

The conversion of paddy fields in
Timor Island is certainly closely related to local government policies that provide facilities to non-agricultural sectors to encourage regional development.The development of the industrial sector and the service sector (education, tourism and other supporting infrastructure) are causing land demand for these sectors to increase.
In an effort to increase rice production, one of the priority problems that occupied to be studied is the change of the paddy area use to non-rice field.
The conversion of agricultural land to non-rice field is in the form of land use for housing, industrial estate and facilities and infrastructure to support economic activities and transportation as an example of a road that grew longer and longer.
Based on the research that has been done by Ilham et.al. (2004)

METHODS
The basic method employed in this research was descriptive analysis method, which is a method in examining the status of a group of people, an object, a set of conditions, a system of thought, or a class of events in the present.The

Analysis Method
To analyze the trend of paddy field area in Timor Island was calculated using trend analysis.Trend analysis is a common trend model for time series data.Trend analysis is an analysis used to observe data trends thoroughly over a fairly long period of time.Trend can be used for a method of analysis aimed at conducting a future forecast or forecast of the weather (Subagyo, 1986).To do a good forecasting it takes a lot of information (data) is quite a lot and observed in a relatively long period, so the results of the analysis can be known The estimated regression model is: An area with better access will influence the decision on land use.Easy access to various facilities and facilities and infrastructure that support good socioeconomic activities will be interesting to use as a place of business or residence as it will provide greater benefits.But unlike the areas that have poor road infrastructure, such as areas that are less difficult to reach, often used for agricultural activities.
Ease of access to road infrastructure will affect land rental in the area will then affect that Fcount> Ftable is significant at α = 0.05%.So that, the independent variables simultaneously significant effect on the dependent variable.
To know the influence of independent variable to dependent variable done by t test.
T test is a partial test that aims to examine the effect of certain independent variables on the dependent variable.The t test is done In line with the results of Putri (2015) study N T T P r o v i n c e i s o n e o f t h e archipelago provinces consisting of several islands, including Flores Island, Sumba Island, Palue Island, Alor Island, Lembata Island, Rote Island, Sabu Island, Adonara Island, Solor Island, Komodo Island and Timor Island.The Timor Island is an island in the southern part of the archipelago, divided between the independent state of East Timor and the West Timor Region, part of the Indonesian province of NTT.The largest contribution is dominated by the agricultural sector with a contribution to the PDRB of Timor Island in 2014 (NTT dalam Angka, 2015).The agricultural sector is dominant in Timor Island's economy because it is the main livelihood of some communities on Timor Island.
Island such as Kupang District, South Central Timor District (TTS), North Central Timor District, Belu District and Kupang City are slowly starting to be converted to non-paddy-field use such as new settlements and other infrastructure development (BPS NTT, 2015).According to Ransastra and Budhi (1997), conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural use can occur directly or indirectly.Conversion is directly due to the decision of the landowners to convert their agricultural land to other uses such as industry, housing, advice and infrastructure.Land that was originally used for cultivating media, slowly began to change into multi-use functions.Changes in agricultural land use to non-farming are known as land conversion or land conversion.Sumaryanto (1995) said the implications of uncontrolled conversion of rice paddies could threaten the food supply capacity, and even in the long term can cause social harm.
, economic factors that affect the conversion of paddy fields in the micro scope are the price of the land, economic activity of a region, the development of settlements and the competitiveness of agricultural products.Besides that, the land conversion macro scope is positively correlated with GDRP growth and negatively correlated with farmer exchange rate.The impact of the conversion of paddy field to non-rice field is the decreasing of agricultural productivity which can be seen from the decreasing of paddy production then the loss of paddy and finally will affect the availability of rice.Knowing the impact of wet land conversion can be done anticipatory action or improvement of the impacts caused, one of them through controlling the conversion of paddy fields.To perform such control, it is necessary to know the factors that affect the conversion of paddy fields.This study aims to determine the trends of paddy field area and the factors affecting the conversion of paddy fields in Timor Island, East Nusa Tenggara Province (NTT).
aim was to make a systematic, factual and accurate description, image or painting of the facts, traits and relationships among the phenomena investigated (Suharsimi, 2005).The location of the research was determined purposively or using purposive sampling, which is a determination of research areas that are deliberately selected by considering certain things, according to the purpose of the research (Sugiyono, 2012).The research sites were conducted in Timor Island.The determination of research location was done intentionally (purposive).The selection of this location was based on the consideration that there is a high growth of non-agricultural sectors in Timor Island; making it vulnerable to paddy field area reduction.The development of supporting infrastructures that are continuing and growing bigger resulted in conversion of paddy fields as a source of rice production can not be avoided.The type of data used in this study was secondary data which were quantitative data including time series data within the period from 2005 to 2014.The data obtained from the Regional Land Agency of NTT Province, as well as related institutions such as: Agricultural Office of NTT Province, Central Bureau of Statistics of NTT Province.This study also explored information to clarify the existing data including other information related to the objectives of the research.The determination of variables is based on the data availability.
until large fluctuations occur and what factors affect the change.Theoretically, in time series analysis the most decisive is the quality or accuracy of the information or data obtained as well as the time or period of the data collected.If the data collected is more numerous then the better the estimate or forecasting obtained.Conversely, if the data collected less then the result of estimation or forecasting will not good.Trend or often called secular trend is the average change (usually every year) in the long run based on time-series data (time series).If the indicated symptoms go up then the trends possess show the average increase and vice versa.Trend estimation using linear trend analysis with Ordinary Least Squares Method (OLS) is formulated as follows (Subagyo, 1986): Ŷ = a + Bx Where : Ŷ : The value of paddy field area trend a : Constant numbers b : Slope of line slant X : Time (year)Meanwhile, the factors that influence paddy field conversion were analyzed using multiple linear regression and estimated by using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method.Regression method is an estimation method that studies how the influence of one variable independent (free)to the dependent variable (not free).In the modern sense, regression is the study of how independent variables are influenced by one or more dependent variables with the aim of estimating and /or predicting the average value of dependent variables based on the value of the independent variables known(Gujarati, 2012).The determinants of paddy field conversion used in this study were Population (X1), real GRDP of non-agricultural sector (X2), labour of agriculture sector (X3), building area (X4), number of industry (X5) and length of road (X6).
Figure 1 shows that during the period of 2005 -2014 on Timor Island there was widespread fluctuation of wetland area with decreasing tendency.In the periods of 2005 was above the trend line and then in 2006-2007 showed a declining

Figure 2 .
Figure 2.Estimated Land Trend in Timor Island Year 2005 -2014 analysis results on the trend of the paddy fields area in Timor Island NTT, it was obtained the result that the trend of paddy field was in the form of linear flat trend.The equation of linear trend of wetland area on Timor Island in 2005-2014 shows that time factor has no significant effect on wetland area.Based on the coefficient of this time factor has a negative relationship to the area of wetland, indicated by the value of the value coefficient (-).The analysis of determinants of paddy field area in Timor Island used multiple linear regression with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method.Based on the results of multiple linear regression analysis, the factors that significantly affected the conversion of paddy fields in Timor Island by the building area and the number of industry.Suggestion According to the results of the research, it is necessary to make efforts to conserve paddy fields through prevention of paddy field conversion and optimization of potential land use so that the sustainability of agriculture in Timor Island can be maintained.The building area and the number of industry have a significant effect on the conversion of paddy fields in Timor Island.Therefore, local governments should arrange and design local regulations depends on UUD Lestari about the conversion of agricultural land such as determining which land may or not be converted, or which land needs to be maintained, especially for high-yielding paddy fields.In addition, the development of appropriate agricultural technology application and the improvement of irrigation network infrastructure are needed to increase the productivity of paddy fields in order to reduce the impact of paddy field conversion resulting from land conversion.

Table 2 .
The Results of Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Paddy Field Conversion in Timor Island in 2017