Kuantifikasi Penyusutan Gletser di Pegunungan Jayawijaya dan Relasinya dengan Perubahan Iklim

Mutia Rahma Apriani; Zulfikar Adlan Nadzir

doi:10.22146/mgi.105325

Kuantifikasi Penyusutan Gletser di Pegunungan Jayawijaya dan Relasinya dengan Perubahan Iklim

https://doi.org/10.22146/mgi.105325

Mutia Rahma Apriani⁽¹⁾, Zulfikar Adlan Nadzir^(2*)

(1) Program Studi Teknik Geomatika, Institut Teknologi Sumatera, Indonesia
(2) Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, Germany.
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

Abstrak. Gletser tropis di Pegunungan Jayawijaya adalah indikator iklim yang sensitif dan telah mencair secara signifikan selama beberapa dekade terakhir. Kajian jangka panjang yang mengaitkan dinamika luas gletser Jayawijaya dengan indikator iklim global masih terbatas. Studi ini menggunakan citra Landsat selama 28 tahun (1995-2023) dan algoritma Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) dalam platform Google Earth Engine untuk memantau pencairan gletser. Untuk mengidentifikasi hubungan antara pencairan gletser dan indikator perubahan iklim lainnya, yaitu perubahan suhu permukaan tanah dan perubahan permukaan air laut, uji korelasi dan kesesuaian model regresi berbasis linier dilakukan. Ekstrapolasi ke masa depan dan masa lalu juga diestimasi untuk memprediksi dan meramalkan area gletser. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa pada 2023, 95,95% area gletser telah hilang dibandingkan tahun 1995 dan lebih cepat 2,6 dan 6 kali daripada penyusutan di gletser lintang tinggi. Tiga dari lima gletser telah lenyap, menyisakan East Northwall Firn dan Carstensz. Berdasarkan hasil, diperkirakan seluruh gletser akan menghilang pada tahun 2024. Selain itu, ditemukan hubungan kuat antara pencairan gletser dengan suhu dan muka laut (r = -0,89 dan 0,90). Temuan ini memperkuat pemahaman tentang dampak iklim di wilayah tropis melalui data dengan resolusi spasial dan temporal tinggi dan menegaskan percepatan dampak iklim di daerah tropis.

Abstract. Tropical glaciers in the Jayawijaya Mountains are sensitive climate indicators and have retreated markedly over recent decades. Long-term studies linking Jayawijaya glacier-area dynamics to global climate indicators remain limited. This study uses 28 years of Landsat imagery and the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) on the Google Earth Engine platform to monitor glacier loss. To identify relationships with other climate-change indicators—namely land surface temperature and sea-level change—we performed correlation tests and simple linear regression model fitting. We also used extrapolation to hindcast and forecast glacier area. Results show that by 2023, 95.95% of glacier area had disappeared relative to 1995, of which 2.6 and 6 times faster than the retreat rate on high-latitude glaciers. Three of five glaciers have vanished, leaving only East Northwall Firn and Carstensz. Based on our results, all glaciers were projected to disappear by 2024. We find strong relationships between glacier retreat and temperature and sea level (r = −0.89 and 0.90). These findings enhance understanding of tropical climate impacts using long, high-resolution satellite records and underscore accelerating climate risks in the tropics.

Submitted: 2025-03-11 Revisions: 2025-09-11 Accepted: 2024-09-11 Published: 2025-09-22

Keywords

Gletser Tropis; Jayawijaya; Landsat; Google Earth Engine; Perubahan Iklim

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/mgi.105325