Fertility Decline in Malawi: A Decomposition Analysis

Martin Enock Palamuleni

doi:10.22146/jp.102685

Fertility Decline in Malawi: A Decomposition Analysis

https://doi.org/10.22146/jp.102685

Martin Enock Palamuleni^(1*)

(1) Population Studies and Demography & Population and Health, North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, Private Bag X2046, Mmabatho 2735, South Africa
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

Fertility in Malawi has been declining since the late 1980s. Total Fertility Rate is reported to have declined by 1.1 children per woman from 5.7 in 2010 to 4.6 in 2015. This reduction indicates a continuing rapid decline in fertility in the country. In view of the foregoing, this study aims to examine the influence of the age structure of the population, nuptiality, and marital fertility on fertility in Malawi. This study used the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey data from 1992, 2000, 2004, 2010, and 2015–2016. Standardization and decomposition methods were used to re-examine fertility trends in Malawi. The results confirms that fertility is declining in Malawi and the fall is clustered among women younger than 30 years of age. The contribution of marital fertility to the decline of Total Fertility Rate was 65.0% during the period 1992–2000, 89.5% during 2000–2004, 2.6% during 2004–2010, and 4.3% during 2010–2015, respectively. Over the same period, the respective contribution of the proportion married was 29.4%, 10.8%, 77.9%, and 92.6%. These percentages suggest that marital fertility followed by proportion of married were important factors before 2005. After 2005, fertility levels and patterns in Malawi are largely influenced by nuptiality. However, there is need for further studies to explain the marriage and fertility nexus in the Malawian context.

Keywords

crude birth rate; decomposition; fertility; marital fertility; nuptiality

Full Text:

PDF

References

Arriaga, Eduardo E, Peter D Johnson, and Ellen Jamison. 1994. Population analysis with microcomputers (Bureau of the Census).

Behrman, Julia Andrea. 2015. 'Does schooling affect women’s desired fertility? Evidence from Malawi, Uganda, and Ethiopia', Demography, 52: 787-809.

Blacker, John. 1994. 'Some thoughts on the evidence of fertility decline in Eastern and Southern Africa', Population and Development Review, 20: 200-05.

Caldwell, John C, and Pat Caldwell. 2002. 'Africa: the new family planning frontier', Studies in family planning, 33: 76-86.

Caldwell, John C, Israel O Orubuloye, and Pat Caldwell. 1992. 'Fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition?', Population and Development Review: 211-42.

Caldwell, John, and Pat Caldwell. 1995. 'The beginning of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa', Populations du Sud: 233.

Casterline, John B. 2017. 'Prospects for fertility decline in Africa', Population and Development Review, 43: 3-18.

Chaurasia, Alok Ranjan. 2011. 'Birth Rate trends in India: 1985-2007-A decomposition analysis', Journal of Family Welfare,, 57: 55-71.

Chintsanya, J. 2013. "Trends and Correlates of Contraceptive Use among Married Women in Malawi: Evidence from 2000-2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Surveys." In.: Calverton, Maryland, USA: ICF International.

Cohen, Barney. 1998. 'The emerging fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa', World Development, 26: 1431-61.

Diamond, Ian, and Naomi Rutenberg. 1995. 'Recent trends in fertility in Botswana', Journal of international development, 7: 145-61.

du Lou, Annabel Desgrees, Philippe Msellati, Ida Viho, and Christiane Welffens-Ekra. 2000. 'The use of induced abortion in Abidjan: a possible cause of the fertility decline?', Population: An English Selection: 197-214.

Gaisie, S Kwesi. 2013. 'Determinants of fertility decline in Botswana', African Population Studies, 10.

Gaisie, Samuel K. 2000. 'Family structure, gender and fertility in Botswana', Pula: Botswana Journal of African Studies, 14: 130-47.

Garenne, Michel. 2013. 'Situations of fertility stall in sub-Saharan Africa', African Population Studies, 23.

———. 2018. 'Family planning and fertility decline in Africa: From 1950 to 2010.' in, Family Planning (IntechOpen).

Garenne, Michel, and Veronique Joseph. 2002. 'The timing of the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa', World Development, 30: 1835-43.

Gubhaju, Bhakta, Eduard Jongstra, and Merewalesi Raikoti. 2014. 'Below-replacement fertility of ethnic Indians in Fiji: A decomposition analysis of the components of changes in the total fertility rate', Journal of Population Research, 31: 269-86.

Hill, Althea. 1986. 'The Demography of Malawi, PHN Technical Note 86-20', Population, Health and Nutrition Department, World Bank.

Jain, Aparna, John Ross, Erin McGinn, and Jay Gribble. 2014. 'Inconsistencies in the total fertility rate and contraceptive prevalence rate in Malawi', Washington, DC: Futures Group, Health Policy Project.

Jiang, Quanbao, Shucai Yang, Shuzhuo Li, and Marcus W Feldman. 2019. 'The decline in China’s fertility level: a decomposition analysis', Journal of biosocial science, 51: 785-98.

John, Ben Malinga, and Vissého Adjiwanou. 2022. 'Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa: Does remarriage matter?', Population Studies, 76: 213-33.

Kirk, Dudley, and Bernard Pillet. 1998. 'Fertility levels, trends, and differentials in sub-Saharan Africa in the 1980s and 1990s', Studies in family planning: 1-22.

Kouaouci, Ali. 1993. 'Fertility in Algeria between 1970 and 1986: trends and factors', Population an English Selection: 21-42.

Lindstrom, David P, and Zewdu Woubalem. 2003. 'The demographic components of fertility decline in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a decomposition analysis', Genus: 147-58.

Lloyd, Cynthia B, Carol E Kaufman, and Paul Hewett. 2000. 'The Spread of Primary Schooling in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Implications for Fertility Change', Population and Development Review, 26: 483-515.

Machiyama, Kazuyo. 2010. 'A re-examination of recent fertility declines in sub-Saharan Africa', DHS Working Papers No. 68. Calverton, Maryland, USA: ICF Macro.

Machiyama, Kazuyo, Richard Silverwood, Andy Sloggett, and John Cleland. 2010. 'Recent Fertility Declines in Sub-Saharan Africa: Analysis of country trends of fertility decline', 36th Chaire Quetelet, Louvain la Neuve.

May, John F, and Sara Rotenberg. 2020. 'A call for better integrated policies to accelerate the fertility decline in sub‐Saharan Africa', Studies in family planning, 51: 193-204.

MG. 1984. 'Malawi Population Census 1977: Analytical Report, (2 volumes), National Statistical Office, Zomba.'.

———. 1987a. 'Malawi Demographic Survey 1982, National Statistical Office, Zomba.'.

———. 1987b. '1984 Family Formation Survey, National Statistical Office, Zomba.'.

———. 1994a. 'Malawi Population and Housing Census 1987: Analytical Report (Volume VII), National Statistical Office, Zomba.'.

———. 1994b. 'National Population Policy, Office of the President and Cabinet, Department of Economic Planning and Development, Lilongwe.'.

———. 1996. 'Family Planning Policy and Contraceptive Guidelines, Ministry of Health and Polpulation and National Family Welfare Council of Malawi, Lilongwe.'.

———. 2013. 'Malawi Population Census 2008: Thematic Report - Fertility, National Statistical Office, Zomba.'.

Mohammed, Bedrouni. 2024. "Les Sources De La Reprise De La Fécondité Chez Les Femmes Nord Africaines Cas Du Maroc, De l'Algérie, De La Tunisie Et De l'Egypte. ." In 9th African Population Conference (APC), 20-24 May 2024. Lilongwe, Malawi.

NSO, MACRO, and ICF Macro. 1994. 'Malawi demographic and health survey 1992', Zomba, Malawi and Calverton, Maryland: NSO and ORC Macro.

———. 2002. 'Malawi demographic and health survey 2000', Zomba, Malawi and Calverton, Maryland: NSO and ORC Macro.

———. 2006. 'Malawi demographic and health survey 2004', Zomba, Malawi and Calverton, Maryland: NSO and ORC Macro.

———. 2011. 'Malawi demographic and health survey 2010', Zomba, Malawi and Calverton, Maryland: NSO and ORC Macro.

———. 2017. 'Malawi demographic and health survey 2015/16', Zomba, Malawi and Calverton, Maryland: NSO and ORC Macro.

Palamuleni, Martin E. 2011. 'Decomposition of South African crude birth rates, 1996-2001', Southern African Journal of Demography, 12: 37-62.

———. 2013. 'Socio-economic and demographic factors affecting contraceptive use in Malawi', African journal of reproductive health, 17: 91-104.

Palamuleni, Martin Enock. 1993. Population dynamics of Malawi: a re-examination of the existing demographic data (University of London, London School of Economics (United Kingdom)).

Sayi, Takudzwa. 2014. "Relationships between fertility and marriage transitions in sub-Saharan Africa." In Population Association of America Annual Congress.

Schoumaker, Bruno. 2017. 'African fertility changes', Africa's population: In search of a demographic dividend: 197-211.

Shapiro, David. 2012. 'Women's education and fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa', Vienna Yearbook of Population Research: 9-30.

Shapiro, David, and Tesfayi Gebreselassie. 2014. 'Marriage in sub-Saharan Africa: Trends, determinants, and consequences', Population research and policy review, 33: 229-55.

Sibanda, Amson, Zewdu Woubalem, Dennis P Hogan, and David P Lindstrom. 2003. 'The Proximate Determinants of the Decline to Below‐replacement Fertility in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia', Studies in family planning, 34: 1-7.

Singh, Susheela, Akinrinola Bankole, and Jacqueline E Darroch. 2017. 'The impact of contraceptive use and abortion on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa: estimates for 2003–2014', Population and Development Review, 43: 141.

Solo, Julie, Roy Jacobstein, and Deliwe Malema. 2005. 'Repositioning family planning—Malawi case study: Choice, not chance', New York: The ACQUIRE Project/EngenderHealth.

UN. 2015. 'World Fertility Patterns 2015 – Data Booklet Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015), New York (ST/ESA/ SER.A/370). '.