From solitary to an adaptive continuum process: Toward a new framework of natural disaster emergency decision-making

Siska Sasmita(1), Bevaola Kusumasari(2*), Agus Pramusinto(3), Ely Susanto(4)

(1) Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Social Science, Universitas Negeri Padang, Indonesia
(2) Department of Public Policy and Management, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
(3) Department of Public Policy and Management, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
(4) Department of Public Policy and Management, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author


Major studies in emergency decisions are focusing on how techno-rational approaches applied in early warning systems to produce an output; rarely explore its opponent, the naturalistic intervention, or how both paradigms function in a crisis decision process. This research aims to identify the actual process of emergency decision making in the context of natural hazard studies, whether it employs the techno-rational or purely naturalistic approach. A systematic review is adopted to assess papers in the period 2000-2018 within the ‘emergency decision making’ AND “natural disaster” keywords. Research finds a non-techno-rational paradigm that contributes to producing a decision outcome. Instead of categorizing it the naturalistic paradigm as named by the scholars, we labelled it a non-technological paradigm. It consists of two main instruments: individual and institutional interventions, that together with the techno-rational instrument develop an adaptive continuum behavior while operating in uncertainty condition in order to generate an effective evacuation order for vulnerable people.


adaptive; continuum; emergency decision making; institutional intervention, techno-rational paradigm

Full Text:



Alexander, D. (1997). The study of Natural Disasters, 1977-1997: Some Reflections on a Changing Field of Knowledge. Disasters, 21(4), 284–304.

Balaid, A., Abd Rozan, M. Z., Hikmi, S. N., & Memon, J. (2016). Knowledge maps: A systematic literature review and directions for future research. International Journal of Information Management, 36(3), 451–475.

Ben-Haim, Y., & Demertzis, M. (2016). Decision making in times of knightian uncertainty: An info-gap perspective. Economics, 10.

Bocanegra-Valle, A. (2014). “English is my default academic language”: Voices from LSP scholars publishing in a multilingual journal. Journal of English for Academic Purposes, 13(1), 65–77.

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. (2017). Economic Losses, Poverty & Disasters 1998-2017. Retrieved from

Centre for Research on the Epidemology of Disaster CRED. (2019). 2018 Review of Disaster Events. Retrieved from

Coleman, L. (2006). Frequency of Man-Made Disasters in the 20 th Century. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 14(1), 3–11.

de Kort, I. A. T. T., & Booij, M. J. (2007). Decision making under uncertainty in a decision support system for the Red River. Environmental Modelling and Software, 22(2), 128–136.

Dhami, M. K., & Mumpower, J. L. (2018). Kenneth R. Hammond’s contributions to the study of judgment and decision making. Judgment and Decision Making, 13(1), 1–22.

Dionne, S. D., Gooty, J., Yammarino, F. J., & Sayama, H. (2018). Decision making in crisis: A multilevel model of the interplay between cognitions and emotions. Organizational Psychology Review, 8(2–3), 95–124.

Endsley, M. R. (1995). Toward a Theory of Situation Awareness in Dynamic Systems. Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, 37(1), 32–64.

Faraji-Rad, A., & Pham, M. T. (2017). Uncertainty increases the reliance on affect in decisions. Journal of Consumer Research, 44(1), 1–21.

Fearnley, C. J. (2013). Assigning a volcano alert level: Negotiating uncertainty, risk, and complexity in decision-making processes. Environment and Planning A, 45(8), 1891–1911.

Galindo, G., & Batta, R. (2013). Review of recent developments in OR/MS research in disaster operations management. European Journal of Operational Research, 230(2), 201–211.

Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Models of Ecological Rationality: The Recognition Heuristic. Psychological Review, 109(1), 75–90.

Hadley, C. N., Pittinsky, T. L., Sommer, S. A., & Zhu, W. (2011). Measuring the efficacy of leaders to assess information and make decisions in a crisis: The C-LEAD scale. The Leadership Quarterly, 22(4), 633–648.

Halkos, G., Managi, S., & Tzeremes, N. G. (2015). The effect of natural and man-made disasters on countries’ production efficiency. Journal of Economic Structures, 4(10), 1–13.

Harding, S. (2007). Man-made disaster and development: The case of Iraq. International Social Work, 50(3), 295–306.

Horita, F. E. A., de Albuquerque, J. P., & Marchezini, V. (2018). Understanding the decision-making process in disaster risk monitoring and early-warning: A case study within a control room in Brazil. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 28(September 2017), 22–31.

Kusumasari, B., Alam, Q., & Siddiqui, K. (2010). Resource capability for local government in managing disaster. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 19(4), 438–451.

Leonard, G. S., Johnston, D. M., Paton, D., Christianson, A., Becker, J., & Keys, H. (2008). Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 172(3–4), 199–215.

Lipshitz, R., Klein, G., Orasanu, J., & Salas, E. (2001). Taking Stock of Naturalistic Decision Making. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 14(5), 331–352.

Reggiani, P., & Weerts, A. H. (2008). A Bayesian approach to decision-making under uncertainty: An application to real-time forecasting in the river Rhine. Journal of Hydrology, 356(1–2), 56–69.

Shaluf, I. M. (2007). Disaster types. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 16(5), 704–717.

Simon, H. A. (2000). Bounded Rationality in Social Science: Today and Tomorrow. Mind & Society, 1(1), 25–39.

Sinclair, H., Doyle, E. E. h., Johnston, D. M., & Paton, D. (2012). Decision-making training in local government emergency management. International Journal of Emergency Services, 1(2), 159–174.

Sobradelo, R., Martí, J., Kilburn, C., & López, C. (2015). Probabilistic approach to decision-making under uncertainty during volcanic crises: retrospective application to the El Hierro (Spain) 2011 volcanic crisis. Natural Hazards, 76(2), 979–998.

Soulé, B. (2014). Post-crisis analysis of an ineffective tsunami alert: The 2010 earthquake in Maule, Chile. Disasters, 38(2), 375–397.

Su, H.-T., & Tung, Y.-K. (2014). Multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty for flood mitigation. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28(7), 1657–1670.

SwissRe. (2018). Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2017: a year of record-breaking losses. In Sigma. Retrieved from

Tuckett, D., Mandel, A., Mangalagiu, D., Abramson, A., Hinkel, J., Katsikopoulos, K., … Wilkinson, A. (2015). Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda. Critical Review, 27(2), 213–242.

van Dijk, E., & Zeelenberg, M. (2007). When curiosity killed regret: Avoiding or seeking the unknown in decision-making under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 43(4), 656–662.


Article Metrics

Abstract views : 569 | views : 171


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2022 Siska Sasmita, Bevaola Kusumasari, Agus Pramusinto, Ely Susanto

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Accredited Journal, Based on Decree of the Minister of Research, Technology and Higher Education, Republic of Indonesia Number 30/E/KPT/2018, Vol 50 No 1 the Year 2018 - Vol 54 No 2 the Year 2022

ISSN 2354-9114 (online), ISSN 0024-9521 (print)