Impacts of Climatic Variation on Water Balance and Yield of Watershed (Insights from The Kaduna Watershed, North Central Nigeria)

Japheth Daramola(1*), Toriman Mohd Ekhwan(2), lam Kuok Choy(3), Jaafar Mokhtar(4), Adeyemi Jibrin Alakeji(5)

(1) Geography Program Social, Environmental, Development, Sustainability Research Centre (SEEDS), Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia and Surveying and Geoinformatics Department, School of Environmental Studies The Federal Polytechnic, P.M.B, 55, Bida, 912212 Niger State Nigeria
(2) Geography Program Social, Environmental, Development, Sustainability Research Centre (SEEDS), Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
(3) Geography Program Social, Environmental, Development, Sustainability Research Centre (SEEDS), Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
(4) Geography Program Social, Environmental, Development, Sustainability Research Centre (SEEDS), Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
(5) Surveying and Geoinformatics Department, School of Environmental Studies The Federal Polytechnic, P.M.B, 55, Bida, 912212 Niger State Nigeria
(*) Corresponding Author


Many authors have identified climate variation impacts in Nigeria. However, the effects on water balance and water yield have not been thoroughly considered. Good knowledge of water balances is vital for sustainable water resource management in northern Nigeria due to high water stress and increased evapotranspiration compared to another part of the country. Hence, the study presents the first detailed climatic variation impacts on watershed water balance and water yield in north-central Nigeria. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to predict the hydrological procedures. The Kaduna watershed (32,124 km2) calibrated and validated streamflow results were run independently using three land cover maps of 1975, 2000, and 2013. The model performance evaluation was statically attained using the coefficient of determination (r2), Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), besides the percentage of observed data (p-factor). The model evaluation result of r2 (0.80), NS (0.71), and p-factors of 0.86 indicated the model satisfactory performance evaluation of streamflow predictions. The streamflow estimation revealed Threshold depth of water ( as the most sensitive parameter. The findings discovered declined between 1975 and 2013 in precipitation, water yield, surface runoff (SURQ_mm), lateral flow (LAT_Qmm), deep aquifer (Deep_mm) by 4.2%, 37.3%, 56%, 15%, and 100% respectively, while shallow groundwater aquifer (GW_Qmm) experienced 10% decrease between 1975 and 2000 and appreciated by 6% between 2000 and 2013, evapotranspiration (ET_mm) increase by about 22.2% between 1975 and 2013. These results suggest considerable effects of climate variation in the watershed and call for further investigation to mitigate climate change influence.



climate variation; SWAT; watershed; water balance; water yield.

Full Text:



Abaje, I. ., Ishaya, S., and Usman, S. . (2010). An Analysis of Rainfall Trends in Kafanchan, Kaduna State, Nigeria. Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 2(2).

Abbaspour, K.C., Rouholahnejad, E., Vaghefi, S., Srinivasan, R., Yang, H., and Kløve, B. (2015). A Continental-scale Hydrology and Water Quality Model for Europe: Calibration and Uncertainty of A High-Resolution Large-scale SWAT Model. Journal of Hydrology, 524, 733–752.

Abbaspour, K. C., Yang, J., Maximov, I., Siber, R., Bogner, K., Mieleitner, J., Zobrist, J., and Srinivasan, R. (2007). Modelling Hydrology and Water Quality in The Pre-Alpine/Alpine Thur Watershed Using SWAT. Journal of Hydrology, 333(2–4), 413–430.

Abouabdillah, A., White, M., Arnold, J. G., De Girolamo, A. M., Oueslati, O., Maataoui, A., and Lo Porto, A. (2014). Evaluation of Soil and Water Conservation Measures in A Semi-Arid River Basin in Tunisia Using SWAT. Soil Use and Management, 30(4), 539–549.

Adams, R.M, and Peck, D. . (2002). Drought and Climate Change: Implications for The West. Western Economics Forum, 14–19.

Adams, R. M., and Peck, D. . . (2008). Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources. CHOICES, 23(1), 12–14.

Adeogun, A. G., Sule, B. F., and Salami, A. W. (2018). Cost

Effectiveness of Sediment Management Strategies for Mitigation of Sedimentation at Jebba Hydropower Reservoir, Nigeria. Journal of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences, 30(2), 141–149.

Adeogun, A. G., Sule, B., Bakare, U., and Salami, A. (2014). Temporal Variations of Suspended Sediments along Selected Tributaries into Jebba Lake. Journal of Research Information in Civil Engineering, 11(2), 480–531.

Aigbe, H., and Oluku, S. (2012). Depleting Forest Resources of Nigeria and Its Impact on Climate. Journal of Agriculture and Social Research (JASR), 12(2), 1–6.

Alemahayu, D., Srinivasan, R., and Daggupat, P. (2014). Application of Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model to Estimate Sediment Yield in Kaw Lake. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 10(6), 530–545.

Areola, O., Ahmed, K., Leong, G., Irueghe, O., Ikwuyatum, G., and Adeleke, B. . (2014). Comprehensive Certificate Geography for Senior Secondary Schools (Physical, Human and Regional Geography with Map Reading). University Press PLC.

Arnold, J., Moriasi, D., Gassman, P., Abbaspour, K., and White, M. (2012a). SWAT: Model use, calibration, and validation. Biological Systems Engineering. Papers and Publications; American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers: St. Joseph, MI, USA,.

Arnold, J., Moriasi, D., Gassman, P. ., Abbaspour, K., and White, M. . (2012b). SWAT: Model Use, Calibration and Validation. Biological Systems Engineering: Papers and Publications.

Baker, T. J., and Miller, S. N. (2013). Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to Assess Land Use Impact on Water Resources in An East African watershed. Journal of Hydrology, 486(486), 100–111.

Bello, O. ., Ganiyu, O. ., Wahab, M. K. ., Afolabi, M. ., Oluleye, F. S. ., Mahmud, J., Azeez, M. ., and Abdullmaliq, S. . (2012). Evidence of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in Nigeria. International Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 2(2), 49–55.

Brouziyne, Y., Abouabdillah, A., Bouabid, R., and Benaabidate, L. (2018). SWAT Streamflow Modeling for Hydrological Components’ Understanding within An Agro-sylvo-pastoral Watershed in Morocco. J. Mater. Environ. Sci, 9(1), 128–138.

Cao, W., Bowden, W. B., Davie, T., and Fenemor, A. (2006). Multi-variable and Multi-site Calibration and Validation of SWAT in a Large Mountainous Catchment with High Spatial Variability. Hydrological Processes, 20(5), 1057–1073.

Charles, G., Ndambuki, J., and Salim, R. (2016). Hydrological Responses to Land Use/Cover Changes in the Olifants Basin, South Africa. Water, 8(12), 588.

Chaves, H. M. L., and Alipaz, S. (2007). An Integrated Indicator Based on Basin Hydrology, Environment, Life, and Policy: The Watershed Sustainability Index. Water Resources Management, 21(5), 883–895.

Conway, D., Persechino, A., Ardoin-Bardin, S., Hamandawana, H., Dieulin, C., and Mahé, G. (2009). Rainfall and Water Resources Variability in Sub-Saharan Africa during the Twentieth Century. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10(1), 41–59.

Daramola, J., Ekhwan, T. M., Mokhtar, J., Lam, K. C., and Adeogun, G. A. (2019). Estimating Sediment Yield at Kaduna watershed, Nigeria Using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model. Heliyon, 5(7), e02106.

Daramola, J, Adepehin, E. J., Ekhwan, T. M., Choy, L. K., Mokhtar, J., and Tabiti, T. S. (2022). Impacts of Land-Use Change, Associated Land-Use Area and Runoff on Watershed Sediment Yield: Implications from the Kaduna Watershed. Water, 14(3), 325.

Daramola, J., Lam, K. C., Mohd, E. T, and Mokhtar, J (2020) Relationships between basin area and sediment yield upstream Shiroro reservoir, north-central Nigeria. GEOGRAFIA OnlineTM Malaysian Journal of Society and Space 16 issue 3 (26-44) © 2020, e-ISSN 2682-7727 geo-2020-1603-03

Douglas, I., Alam, K., Maghenda, M., Mcdonnell, Y., Mclean, L., and Campbell, J. (2008). Unjust Waters: Climate Change, Flooding and The Urban Poor in Africa. Environment and Urbanization, 20(1), 187–205.

Eckhardt, K., and Arnold, J. G. (2001). Automatic Calibration of A Distributed Catchment Model. Journal of Hydrology, 251(1–2), 103–109.

Fasona, M. ., and Omojola, A. . (2005). Climate Change, Human Security and Communal Clashes in Nigeria. International Workshop on Human Security and Climate Change.

Frederick, K. ., and Major, D. . (1997). Climate Change and Water Resources. Kluwer Academik Publisher.

Gabiri, G., Leemhuis, C., Diekkrüger, B., Näschen, K., Steinbach, S., and Thonfeld, F. (2019). Modelling the Impact of Land Use Management on Water Resources in A Tropical Inland Valley Catchment of Central Uganda, East Africa. Science of The Total Environment, 653, 1052–1066.

Ghaffari, G., Keesstra, S., Ghodousi, J., and Ahmadi, H. (2010). SWAT-simulated Hydrological Impact of Land-use Change in The Zanjanrood Basin, Northwest Iran. Hydrological Processes, 24(7), 892–903.

Idowu, A. ., Ayoola, S. ., Opele, A. ., and Ikenweiwe, N. . (2011). Impact of Climate Change in Nigeria. Journal of Energy and Environment, 2(2), 145–152.

IRIN. (2012). Nigeria: Worst Flooding in Decades. IRIN Africa.

Ishaku, H. T., and Majid, M. R. (2010). X-Raying Rainfall Pattern and Variability in Northeastern Nigeria: Impacts on Access to Water Supply. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 02(11), 952–959.

Krause, P., Boyle, D. P., and Bäse, F. (2005). Comparison of Different Efficiency Criteria for Hydrological Model Assessment. Advances in Geosciences, 5, 89–97.

Leon, L. F., and George, C. (2007). WaterBase: SWAT in an Open Source GIS. The Open Hydrology Journal, 2(1), 19–24.

Liew, M. W., and Garbrecht, J. (2003). Hydrologic Simulation of The Little Washita River Experimental Watershed Using SWAT. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39(2), 413–426.

Lüke, A., and Hack, J. (2018). Comparing the Applicability of Commonly Used Hydrological Ecosystem Services Models for Integrated Decision-Support. Sustainability, 10(2), 346.

Mahe, G., Lienou, G., Descroix, L., Bamba, F., Paturel, J. E., Laraque, A., Meddi, M., Habaieb, H., Adeaga, O., Dieulin, C., Chahnez Kotti, F., and Khomsi, K. (2013). The Rivers of Africa: Witness of Climate Change and Human Impact on The Environment. Hydrological Processes, 27(15), 2105–2114.

Mahé, G., and Olivry, J.-C. (1999). Assessment of Freshwater Yields to The Ocean along The Intertropical Atlantic Coast of Africa (1951–1989). Comptes Rendus de l’Académie Des Sciences - Series IIA - Earth and Planetary Science, 328(9), 621–626.

Mohammed, S. . (2014). Surface Runoff Responses to Rainfall Variability Over The Bida Basin, Nigeria. Journal of Environment and Earth Science, 4(3), 2224–3216.

Moriasi, D. ., Arnold, J. ., Van Liew, M. ., Binger, R. ., Harmel, R. .,

and Veith, T. . (2007). Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations. Transaction of ASABE, 50(3), 885–900.

Motovilov, Y. ., Gottschalk, L., England, K., and Rodhe, A. (1999). Validation of Distributed Hydrological Model Against Spatial Observations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 98(99), 257–277.

Ndulue, E., and Mbajiorgu, C. . (2018). Modeling Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Streamflow and Sediment Yield of An Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT. AgricEngInt: CIGR Journal, 20(4), 15–25.

Neitseh, S. ., Arnold, J. ., Kiniry, J. ., and Williams, J. . (2009). Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation Version 2009. Grass, Soli and water Research Laboratory-Agricultural Research Service, Blackland Research Center- Taxas AgriLife Research.

Nicholson, S. E. (2013). The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability. ISRN Meteorology, 2013, 1–32.

Nzoiwu, C. P., Agulue, E. I., Mbah, S., and Igboanugo, C. P. (2017). Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Surface Temperature Condition of Awka Town, Nigeria. Journal of Geographic Information System, 09(06), 763–776.

Odemerho, F. O. (2015). Building Climate Change Resilience Through Bottom-up Adaptation to Flood Risk in Warri, Nigeria. Environment and Urbanization, 27(1), 139–160.

Odjugo, A. O. . (2005). An Analysis of Rainfall and its Implication in Nigeria. Global Journal of Environmental Sciences, 4(2), 139–145.

Ogilvie, A., Mahé, G., Ward, J., Serpantié, G., Lemoalle, J., Morand, P., Barbier, B., Tamsir Diop, A., Caron, A., Namarra, R., Kaczan, D., Lukasiewicz, A., Paturel, J.-E., Liénou, G., and Charles Clanet, J. (2010). Water, Agriculture and Poverty in the Niger River Basin. Water International, 35(5), 594–622.

Parajuli, P. B., Nelson, N. O., Frees, L. D., and Mankin, K. R. (2009). Comparison of AnnAGNPS and SWAT Model Simulation Results in USDA-CEAP Agricultural Watersheds in South-Central Kansas. Hydrological Processes, 23(5), 748–763.

Pluntke, T., Barfus, K., Myknovych, A., and Bernhofer, K. (2010). Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in The Western Bug Basin. Proceedings of the Global and Regional Climate Changes, 16–19.

Roudier, P., Ducharne, A., and Feyen, L. (2014). Climate Change Impacts on Runoff in West Africa: A Review. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(7), 2789–2801.

Safari, B. (2012). Trend Analysis of the Mean Annual Temperature in Rwanda during the Last Fifty Two Years. Journal of Environmental Protection, 03(06), 538–551.

Sule, I. M., and Odekunle, M. O. (2016). Landscapes of West Africa: A Window on a Changing World. CILLS: Landscapes of West Africa: A Window on a Changing World.

Tallis, H. (2011). Natural Capital: Theory and Practice of Mapping Ecosystem Services. Oxford University Press.

USDA. (2009). Natural Resources Conservation Service Chapter 20 Watershed Yield. In National Engineering Handbook. USDA.

Villamizar, S. R., Pineda, S. M., and Carrillo, G. A. (2019). The Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on the Water Yield of a Watershed in Colombia. Water, 11(2), 285.

Williams, J. R., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., Gassman, P. W., and Green, C. H. (2008). History of Model Development at Temple, Texas. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(5), 948–960.

Winchell, M., Srinivasan, R., Di Luzion, M., and Arnold, J. (2010). ArcAWAT Interface for SWAT2009, User’s Guide. 2010.

Zhang, L., Cheng, L., Chiew, F., and Fu, B. (2018). Understanding the Impacts of Climate and Landuse Change on Water Yield. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 33, 167–174.


Article Metrics

Abstract views : 1896 | views : 990


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2022 Japheth Daramola

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Accredited Journal, Based on Decree of the Minister of Research, Technology and Higher Education, Republic of Indonesia Number 225/E/KPT/2022, Vol 54 No 1 the Year 2022 - Vol 58 No 2 the Year 2026 (accreditation certificate download)

ISSN 2354-9114 (online), ISSN 0024-9521 (print)