Climate Change Dynamics and Imperatives for Food Security in Nigeria

Abstract

Decadal variability in African rainfall is projected from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to continue under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. Effects on rain intensity, spatio-temporal variability of growing seasons, flooding, drought, and land-use change impose feedbacks at regional-local scales. Yet, empirical knowledge of associated impacts on crop yield is limited; thus, we examined the imperatives for food security in Nigeria. Bivariate correlation and multiple regression suggests impending drought in the northern region where livestock farming is predominant. Relative contributions of climate independent variables in determining crop yield by backward selection procedures with stepwise approach indexed the impacts of annual climate variability by a parameter computed as annual yield minus mean annual yield divided by the standard deviation. Results show Z-distribution approximately 5 to + 5, when < 3 or > 3 indicate impacts significant at 95% confidence levels. In conclusion, we established the interwoven relationship between climatic change and food security.