Volatility Analysis on Producer Price of Red Pepper and Cayenne Pepper in West Java Province Indonesia
Candarisma Dhanes Noor Viana(1*), Slamet Hartono(2), Lestari Rahayu Waluyati(3)
(1) Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Gadjah Mada
(2) Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Gadjah Mada
(3) Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Gadjah Mada
(*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
This study aims to determine the price volatility in producer of red pepper and cayenne pepper in West Java Province. The data used in this research was secondary data focusing on monthly price statistics of red pepper and cayenne pepper producer in West Java Province from 2008 to 2015. The method used in this research was ARCH/GARCH method with best model determination. Based on the research, it was found that the best model for the price of red pepper in producer was GARCH (1,1) with the volatility value of 0,96. It means that volatility of price of red pepper in producer level was influenced by the increase and fluctuations on producer price of red pepper one month before. The best model for the price of the cayenne pepper producer was ARCH (1) with the volatility value of 0,52. It means that price volatility of cayenne pepper in producer level was also influenced by fluctuations producer price of cayenne pepper one month before. The value of volatility price of red pepper in West Java Province is closed to one, so it can be categorized of high volatility. Meanwhile, the price on the producer of cayenne pepper in West Java Province can be categorized of low volatility.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Anwarudin. M.J.S, Apri. L., Sayekti. A. Marendra, dan Y. Hilman. 2015. Dinamika produksi dan volatilitas harga cabai : antisipasi strategi dan kebijakan pengembangan. Jurnal Pengembangan Inovasi Pertanian 8(1) : 33-42.
Aryasita, P. R dan A. Mukarromah. 2013. Analisis fungsi transfer pada harga cabai merah yang dipengaruhi oleh curah hujan di Surabaya. Jurnal Sains dan Seni Pomits 2 : 2337-3520.
Asmara, A., R. Oktaviani, Kuntjoro, M. Firdaus. 2011. Volatilitas harga minyak dunia dan dampaknya terhadap kinerja sektor industri pengolahan dan makroekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Agro Ekonomi 29 :49-69
Bakari, Y., R. Anindita, dan Syafrial. 2013. Analisis volatilitas harga, transmisi harga dan volatility spillover pada pasar dunia crude palm oil (CPO) dengan pasar minyak goreng di Indonesia. AGRISE 13 : 1412-1425.
Burhani. F. J., A. Fariyanti dan S. Jahroh. 2013. Analisis volatilitas harga daging sapi potong dan daging ayam broiler di Indonesia. Journal IPB 3(2) : 19-40. http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/fagb/article/view/8869. [13 Januari 2017].
Devi, P., Harsoyo dan Subejo. 2015. Keefektifan lembaga pasar lelang cabai merah di Kecamatan Panjatan Kabupaten Kulon Progo. Agro Ekonomi 26(2) : 139-149.
Diebold, F.X and L. Killian. 2000. Unit root tests are useful for selecting forecasting models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 18 : 265 273.
Edi, S dan Rahmanta. 2014. Analisis integrasi dan volatilitas harga beras regional ASEAN terhadap pasar beras Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonom 17(2) : 79-91.
Farid, M dan N.A. Subekti. 2012. Tinjauan terhadap produksi, konsumsi, distribusi dan dinamika harga cabe di Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan 6:211-234.
Gilbert, C.L and C.W. Morgan. 2010. Food price volatility. Journal Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365 : 3023-3034.
Hirshleifer, J and G, Amihai. 1984. Price Theory and Application. Third Edition. New Jersey : Prentice-Hall Inc.
Lepetit. 2011. Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility. Chapter : Price Volatility and Price Leadership in the EU Beef and Pork Meat Market. New York : Springer Science & Business Media.
Sumaryanto. 2009. Analisis volatilitas harga eceran beberapa komoditas pangan utama dengan model ARCH/GARCH. Jurnal Agro Ekonomi 27(2) : 135-163.
Wijaya, M.A., R. Anindita, dan B. Setiawan. 2014. Analisis volatilitas harga, volatilitas spillover dan trend harga pada komoditas bawang putih di Jawa Timur. AGRISE 14:127-143.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/jae.25939
Article Metrics
Abstract views : 6401 | views : 4962Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2018 Agro Ekonomi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
View My Stats