CA-Markov Chain Model-based Predictions of Land Cover: A Case Study of Banjarmasin City

https://doi.org/10.22146/ijg.71721

Supriatna Supriatna(1), Mutia Kamalia Mukhtar(2*), Kartika Kusuma Wardani(3), Fathia Hashilah(4), Masita Dwi Mandini Manessa(5)

(1) Department of Geography, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
(2) Department of Social Sciences Education Faculty of Education and Teacher Training Universitas Terbuka
(3) Department of Geography, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
(4) Department of Geography, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
(5) Department of Geography, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Land cover change is a prevalent thing in Indonesia. This phenomenon often causes deforestation rates to continue to increase every year, which can cause various natural disasters. This study will look at changes in land cover, make land cover prediction models, and see the relationship between land cover changes and the flood disaster that occurred in Banjarmasin City and its surroundings. Remote sensing is used to see changes in land cover from year to year with GlobeLand30 satellite imagery. Satellite imagery processing is carried out using the Cellular Automata – Markov Chain method to see the land cover prediction. The results show that the most significant land cover change from 2000 to 2020 is experienced by built-up land and forests, while in 2030, forests are predicted to experience deforestation of 356 km2 from 2020. The deforestation will cause catastrophic flooding in 2021, where flooding extends to areas that are not estimated to be high flood hazards, with 111 flood points located in the plantation area.


Keywords


Deforestation; land cover change; land cover prediction; cellular automata; markov chain; flood

Full Text:

PDF


References

EL-kawy, Osama Rady, Hassan Ahmed Ismail, Hythem Mohamed Yehia, and Mohamed Abdelrady Allam. (2019). “Temporal Detection and Prediction of Agricultural Land Consumption by Urbanization Using Remote Sensing.” Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science 22(3):237–46. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrs.2019.05.001.

Akbar, Fadhli, and Supriatna. (2019). “Land Cover Modelling of Pelabuhanratu City in 2032 Using Celullar Automata-Markov Chain Method.” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 311(1). doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/311/1/012071.

Amri, Mohd. Robi, Gita Yulianti, Ridwan Yunus, Sesa Wiguna, Asfirmanto W. Adi, Ageng Nur Ichwana, and Rizky Tri Randongkir, Roling Evans Septian. (2016). RBI (Risiko Bencana Indonesia). Vol. 9. Jakarta: BNPB.

Andualem, Tesfa Gebrie, Gizew Belay, and Adebabay Guadie. (2018). “Land Use Change Detection Using Remote Sensing Technology.” Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change 9(10). doi: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000496.

Austin, Kemen G., Amanda Schwantes, Yaofeng Gu, and Prasad S. Kasibhatla. (2019). “What Causes Deforestation in Indonesia?” Environmental Research Letters 14(2). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf6db.

BPBD. (2021). “Geo Portal Kalimantan Selatan.” Geoportal. Retrieved February 15, 2021 (http://geoportal.kalselprov.go.id/WebPortal/Katalog/).

BPS. (2020). Kalimantan Selatan Dalam Angka 2020. Banjarbaru: BPS Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan.

Brovelli, Maria Antonia, Yaru Sun, and Vasil Yordanov. (2020). “Monitoring Forest Change in the Amazon Using Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Data and Machine Learning Classification on Google Earth Engine.” ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 9(10):1–21. doi: 10.3390/ijgi9100580.

Chiteculo, Vasco, Azadeh Abdollahnejad, Dimitrios Panagiotidis, Peter Surový, and Ram P. Sharma. (2018). “Defining Deforestation Patterns Using Satellite Images from 2000 and 2017: Assessment of Forest Management in Miombo Forests-A Case Study of Huambo Province in Angola.” Sustainability (Switzerland) 11(1). doi: 10.3390/su11010098.

Darmawan, Soni, Dewi Kania Sari, Ketut Wikantika, Anggun Tridawati, Rika Hernawati, and Maria Kurniawati Sedu. (2020). “Identification Before-after Forest Fire and Prediction of Mangrove Forest Based on Markov-Cellular Automata in Part of Sembilang National Park, Banyuasin, South Sumatra, Indonesia.” Remote Sensing 12(22):1–25. doi: 10.3390/rs12223700.

Erthalia, Meike, Supriatna, and Astrid Damayanti. (2018). “Land Cover Change of Post-Tin Mining Land Conservation Area and Its Surroundings in Perimping Sub Watershed, Bangka Regency.” E3S Web of Conferences 73. doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/2018730.

FAO. (1990). Situation and Outlook of the Forestry Sector in Indonesia. Volume 1: Issues, Findings and Opportunities. edited by Indonesian Ministry of Forestry. Jakarta: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Fuller, Douglas O., Martin Hardiono, and Erik Meijaard. (2011). “Deforestation Projections for Carbon-Rich Peat Swamp Forests of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia.” Environmental Management 48(3):436–47. doi: 10.1007/s00267-011-9643-2.

Gallardo, M., and J. Martínez-Vega. (2016). “Three Decades of Land-Use Changes in the Region of Madrid and How They Relate to Territorial Planning.” European Planning Studies 24(5):1016–33. doi: 10.1080/09654313.2016.1139059.

Ghosh, Pramit, Anirban Mukhopadhyay, Abhra Chanda, Parimal Mondal, Anirban Akhand, Sandip Mukherjee, S. K. Nayak, Subhajit Ghosh, Debasish Mitra, Tuhin Ghosh, and Sugata Hazra. (2017). “Application of Cellular Automata and Markov-Chain Model in Geospatial Environmental Modeling- A Review.” Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 5:64–77. doi: 10.1016/j.rsase.2017.01.005.

Gidey, Eskinder, Oagile Dikinya, Reuben Sebego, Eagilwe Segosebe, and Amanuel Zenebe. (2017). “Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (CA_Markov) Model-Based Predictions of Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios (2015–2033) in Raya, Northern Ethiopia.” Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 3(4):1245–62. doi: 10.1007/s40808-017-0397-6.

Guan, Dong Jie, Hai Feng Li, Takuro Inohae, Weici Su, Tadashi Nagaie, and Kazunori Hokao. (2011). “Modeling Urban Land Use Change by the Integration of Cellular Automaton and Markov Model.” Ecological Modelling 222(20–22):3761–72. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.09.009.

Gunarso, Petrus, Manjela Eko Hartoyo, Fahmuddin Agus, and Timothy J. Killeen. (2013). “Oil Palm and Land Use Change in Indonesia , Malaysia and Papua New Guinea.” Reports from the Technical Panels of RSPOs 2nd Greenhouse Gas Working Group (January 2013):29–64.

Guo, Andong, Yuqing Zhang, and Qing Hao. (2020). “Monitoring and Simulation of Dynamic Spatiotemporal Land Use/Cover Changes.” Complexity 2020. doi: 10.1155/2020/3547323.

Halmy, Marwa Waseem A., Paul E. Gessler, Jeffrey A. Hicke, and Boshra B. Salem. (2015). “Land Use/Land Cover Change Detection and Prediction in the North-Western Coastal Desert of Egypt Using Markov-CA.” Applied Geography 63:101–12. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.06.015.

Hamad, Rahel, Heiko Balzter, and Kamal Kolo. (2018). “Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios.” Sustainability (Switzerland) 10(10):1–23. doi: 10.3390/su10103421.

Hao, Shuang, Fengshun Zhu, and Yuhuan Cui. (2021). “Land Use and Land Cover Change Detection and Spatial Distribution on the Tibetan Plateau.” Scientific Reports 11(1). doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-87215-w.

Hasan, Mohammad Emran, Biswajit Nath, A. H. M. Raiha. Sarker, Zhihua Wang, Li Zhang, Xiaomei Yang, Mohammad Nur Nobi, Eivin Røskaft, David J. Chivers, and Ma Suza. (2020). “Applying Multi-Temporal Landsat Satellite Data and Markov-Cellular Automata to Predict Forest Cover Change and Forest Degradation of Sundarban Reserve Forest, Bangladesh.” Forests 11(9). doi: 10.3390/F11091016.

Hassan, Mustafa Elnagi Elsamani, and Agus Joko Pitoyo. (2017). “Urbanization and Economic Development in Indonesia: Demographic Perspectives Analysis.” Populasi 25:54–69.

Hemati, Mohammadali, Mahdi Hasanlou, and Masoud Mahdianpari. (2021). “A Systematic Review of Landsat Data for Change Detection Applications : 50 Years of Monitoring the Earth.” Remote Sensing.

Hooijer, A., S. Page, J. G. Canadell, M. Silvius, J. Kwadijk, H. Wösten, and J. Jauhiainen. (2010). “Current and Future CO 2 Emissions from Drained Peatlands in Southeast Asia.” Biogeosciences 7(5):1505–14. doi: 10.5194/bg-7-1505-2010.

Hooijer, A., S. Page, J. Jauhiainen, W. A. Lee, X. X. Lu, A. Idris, and G. Anshari. (2012). “Subsidence and Carbon Loss in Drained Tropical Peatlands.” Biogeosciences 9(3):1053–71. doi: 10.5194/bg-9-1053-2012.

INCAS. (2015). “Kalimantan Selatan - INCAS.” Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup Dan Kehutanan, Republik Indonesia. Retrieved January 27, 2021 (http://incas.menlhk.go.id/id/data/south-kalimantan/).

Jong, Hans Nicholas. (2021). “Palm Oil Plantations, Coal Mines Linked to Deadly Indonesia Flood.” Mongabay. Retrieved January 29, 2021 (https://news.mongabay.com/2021/01/palm-oil-plantations-coal-mines-deforestation-indonesia-south-kalimantan-flood/).

Kaliraj, S., N. Chandrasekar, K. K. Ramachandran, Y. Srinivas, and S. Saravanan. (2017). “Coastal Landuse and Land Cover Change and Transformations of Kanyakumari Coast, India Using Remote Sensing and GIS.” Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science 20(2):169–85. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrs.2017.04.003.

Kartikasari, Retna, Arief Rachmansyah, and Amin Setyo Leksono. (2019). “Impact of Coal Mining in Forest Area To Carbon Emission in Kutai Kartanegara, East Kalimantan.” Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam Dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) 9(4):1066–74. doi: 10.29244/jpsl.9.4.1066-1074.

Khawaldah, H. A., I. Farhan, and N. M. Alzboun. (2020). “Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management Simulation and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change Using GIS, Remote Sensing and CA-Markov Model ARTICLE INFO.” Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management 6(2):215–32. doi: 10.22034/gjesm.2020.02.07.

Khwarahm, Nabaz R. (2021). “Spatial Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Sulaimani, Iraq, Using Multitemporal Satellite Data.” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 193(3). doi: 10.1007/s10661-021-08959-6.

Kiswanto, Satoshi Tsuyuki, Mardiany, and Sumaryono. (2018). “Completing Yearly Land Cover Maps for Accurately Describing Annual Changes of Tropical Landscapes.” Global Ecology and Conservation 13:e00384. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2018.e00384.

KLHK. (2020). “Hutan Dan Deforestasi Indonesia Tahun 2019.” Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup Dan Kehutanan. Retrieved January 27, 2021 (http://ppid.menlhk.go.id/siaran_pers/browse/2435).

Kusratmoko, E., S. D. Y. Albertus, and Supriatna. (2017). “Modelling Land Use/Cover Changes with Markov- Cellular Automata in Komering Watershed, South Sumatera.” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54(1). doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/755/1/011001.

de la Paix, M. J., L. Lanhai, C. Xi, S. Ahmed, and A. Varenyam. (2011). “SOIL DEGRADATION AND ALTERED FLOOD RISK AS A CONSEQUENCE OF DEFORESTATION.” Land Degradation & Development 24(5):n/a-n/a. doi: 10.1002/ldr.1147.

Li, Dan, Peipei Tian, Hongying Luo, Tiesong Hu, Bin Dong, Yuanlai Cui, Shahbaz Khan, and Yufeng Luo. (2020). “Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Regional Climate in the Lhasa River Basin, Tibetan Plateau.” Science of the Total Environment 742:140570. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140570.

Malhi, Ramandeep Kaur M., Akash Anand, Prashant K. Srivastava, G. Sandhya Kiran, George P. Petropoulos, and Christos Chalkias. (2020). “An Integrated Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis Model to Assess and Predict the Degradation of Protected Forest Areas.” ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 9(9). doi: 10.3390/ijgi9090530.

Mas, Jean François, Melanie Kolb, Martin Paegelow, María Teresa Camacho Olmedo, and Thomas Houet. (2014). “Inductive Pattern-Based Land Use/Cover Change Models: A Comparison of Four Software Packages.” Environmental Modelling and Software 51:94–111. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.09.010.

McCarl, B., W. Attavanich, M. Musumba, J. E. Mu, and R. A. Aisabokhae. (2014). “Land Use and Climate Change.” Science 310:1625–26. doi: 10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780199763740.013.024.

Misra, A., and R. Balaji. (2015). “A Study on the Shoreline Changes and Land-Use/Land-Cover along the South Gujarat Coastline.” Pp. 381–89 in Procedia Engineering. Vol. 116. Elsevier Ltd.

Munthali, M. G., S. Mustak, A. Adeola, J. Botai, S. K. Singh, and N. Davis. (2020). “Modelling Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics of Dedza District of Malawi Using Hybrid Cellular Automata and Markov Model.” Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 17:100276. doi: 10.1016/j.rsase.2019.100276.

Negassa, Milkessa Dangia, Demissie Tsega Mallie, and Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda. (2020). “Forest Cover Change Detection Using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing Techniques: A Spatio-Temporal Study on Komto Protected Forest Priority Area, East Wollega Zone, Ethiopia.” Environmental Systems Research 9(1):1. doi: 10.1186/s40068-020-0163-z.

NGCC. (2014). “30-Meter Global Land Cover Dataset (GlobeLand30) Product Description.”

Page, S. E., R. Morrison, C. Malins, A. Hooijer, J. O. Rieley, and J. Jauhiainen. 2011. “Review of Peat Surface Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Oil Palm Plantations in Southeast Asia.” International Council on Clean Transportation Funding (15).

PBB.(2015). Tujuan Pembangunan Berkelanjutan.

Pramudya, Y., Komariah, W. S. Dewi, Sumani, Mujiyo, T. A. Sukoco, and Z. Rozaki. 2016. “Remote Sensing for Estimating Agricultural Land Use Change as the Impact of Climate Change.” P. 987720 in Land Surface and Cryosphere Remote Sensing III. Vol. 9877, edited by R. Khanbilvardi, A. Ganju, A. S. Rajawat, and J. M. Chen. SPIE.

Ramdhoni, Fuad, Annisa Hana Fitriani, and Humam Abdurrasyid Afif. (2019). “Identifikasi Deforestasi Melalui Pemetaan Tutupan Lahan Di Kabupaten Banjar, Kalimantan Selatan.” Seminar Nasional Geomatika 3:465. doi: 10.24895/sng.2018.3-0.987.

Sosilawati, Mangapul L. Nababan, Ary Rahman Wahyudi, Zhein Adhi Mahendra, Wibowo Massudi, and Sara Sorayya Ermuna. (2020). Sinkronisasi Program Dan Pembiayaan Pembangunan Jangka Pendek 2018-2020 Keterpaduan Pengembangan Kawasan Dengan Infrastruktur PUPR Pulau Kalimantan. Jakarta: Pusat Pemrograman Dan Evaluasi Keterpaduan Infrastruktur PUPR, Badan Pengembangan Infrastruktur Wilayah, Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum Dan Perumahan Rakyat.

Sterling, Shannon M., Agnès Ducharne, and Jan Polcher. (2013). “The Impact of Global Land-Cover Change on the Terrestrial Water Cycle.” Nature Climate Change 3(4):385–90. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1690.

Sun, Dazhi, and Xuqian Li. (2010). “Application of Markov Chain Model on Environmental Fate of Phenanthrene in Soil and Groundwater.” Procedia Environmental Sciences 2(5):814–23. doi: 10.1016/j.proenv.2010.10.092.

Syaarawie, M. Mutawallie. (2021). “11 Kabupaten Dan Kota Terdampak Banjir Di Kalimantan Selatan.” Bisnis.Com. Retrieved January 27, 2021 (https://kalimantan.bisnis.com/read/20210120/407/1345569/11-kabupaten-dan-kota-terdampak-banjir-di-kalimantan-selatan).

Vázquez-Quintero, Griselda, Raúl Solís-Moreno, Marín Pompa-García, Federico Villarreal-Guerrero, Carmelo Pinedo-Alvarez, and Alfredo Pinedo-Alvarez. (2016). “Detection and Projection of Forest Changes by Using the Markov Chain Model and Cellular Automata.” Sustainability (Switzerland) 8(3):1–13. doi: 10.3390/su8030236.

Verstegen, Judith A., Carina van der Laan, Stefan C. Dekker, André P. C. Faaij, and Maria J. Santos. (2019). “Recent and Projected Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Carbon Stocks and Biodiversity in East Kalimantan, Indonesia.” Ecological Indicators 103:563–75. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.04.053.

Vick, Erivelton Pereira, and Vitor Matheus Bacani. (2019). “Prediction of the Future Scenario of the Expansion of Areas of Forestry Into the Brazilian Cerrado Using a Cellular Automata Markov Chain Model.” Mercator - Revista de Geografia Da UFC 18(8):e18026. doi: 10.4215/rm2019.e18026.

Wells, Jessie A., Erik Meijaard, Nicola K. Abram, and Serge Wich. (2013). Forests, Floods, People and Wildlife on Borneo. Vol. 11.

Widadio, Nicky Aulia. (2021). “Indonesia: Floods in South Kalimantan Kill 21.” Anadolu Agency. Retrieved January 27, 2021 (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/indonesia-floods-in-south-kalimantan-kill-21/2116691).

Wösten, Henk, Aljosja Hooijer, Christian Siderius, Dipa Satriadi Rais, Aswandi Idris, and John Rieley. (2006). “Tropical Peatland Water Management Modelling of the Air Hitam Laut Catchment in Indonesia.” International Journal of River Basin Management 4(4):233–44. doi: 10.1080/15715124.2006.9635293.

Wulder, Michael A., Thomas R. Loveland, David P. Roy, Christopher J. Crawford, Jeffrey G. Masek, Curtis E. Woodcock, Richard G. Allen, Martha C. Anderson, Alan S. Belward, Warren B. Cohen, John Dwyer, Angela Erb, Feng Gao, Patrick Griffiths, Dennis Helder, Txomin Hermosilla, James D. Hipple, Patrick Hostert, M. Joseph Hughes, Justin Huntington, David M. Johnson, Robert Kennedy, Ayse Kilic, Zhan Li, Leo Lymburner, Joel McCorkel, Nima Pahlevan, Theodore A. Scambos, Crystal Schaaf, John R. Schott, Yongwei Sheng, James Storey, Eric Vermote, James Vogelmann, Joanne C. White, Randolph H. Wynne, and Zhe Zhu. (2019). “Current Status of Landsat Program, Science, and Applications.” Remote Sensing of Environment 225(March):127–47. doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.015.

Yudarwati, Rani. (2016). “Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Dan Arahan Pengendaliannya Di Kabupaten Bogor Dan Cianjur.” Institut Pertanian Bogor.

Zanganeh Shahraki, Saeed, David Sauri, Pere Serra, Sirio Modugno, Faranak Seifolddini, and Ahmad Pourahmad. (2011). “Urban Sprawl Pattern and Land-Use Change Detection in Yazd, Iran.” Habitat International 35(4):521–28. doi: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2011.02.004.

Zhang, Xianliang, Zhe Xiong, Xuezhen Zhang, Ying Shi, Jiyuan Liu, Quanqin Shao, and Xiaodong Yan. (2016). “Using Multi-Model Ensembles to Improve the Simulated Effects of Land Use/Cover Change on Temperature: A Case Study over Northeast China.” Climate Dynamics 46(3–4):765–78. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2611-4.



DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/ijg.71721

Article Metrics

Abstract views : 1679 | views : 1214

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Copyright (c) 2022 Supriatna Supriatna, Mutia Kamalia Mukhtar, Kartika Kusuma Wardani, Fathia Hashilah, Masita Dwi Mandini Manessa

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Accredited Journal, Based on Decree of the Minister of Research, Technology and Higher Education, Republic of Indonesia Number 225/E/KPT/2022, Vol 54 No 1 the Year 2022 - Vol 58 No 2 the Year 2026 (accreditation certificate download)

ISSN 2354-9114 (online), ISSN 0024-9521 (print)

Web
Analytics IJG STATISTIC