The Dynamics of Australia’s Contemporary Defence Policy: Self-Reliance to Strategy of Denial and Its Implications for Southeast Asia’s Regional Security

Abstract

This article aims to assess the dynamics of Australia’s contemporary defence policy by examining its shift from the Self-Reliance doctrine towards the Strategy of Denial and the implications of this shift for Southeast Asia’s regional security architecture. The central research problems concern the persistent contradiction between Australia’s declaratory commitment to self-reliance and its deepening alliance dependence on the United States, the impact of China’s rising aggregate power and assertiveness, and the ways in which these developments reshape Southeast Asian security and hedging behaviour. Methodologically, the study employs process tracing combined with balance of threat theory, drawing on historical analysis of defence white papers, official strategic reviews, and regional responses to initiatives such as AUKUS. The significance of the research lies in clarifying how a middle power recalibrates its defence posture under structural pressure, and how this recalibration affects ASEAN states that cannot independently balance China and instead pursue various hedging strategies. The findings demonstrate that Australia has adopted a hybrid Strategy of Denial that maintains alliance integration while enhancing denial capabilities, an evolution that simultaneously reassures and unsettles Southeast Asian states.