Scientific Prediction of the Covid-19 Pandemic and What Should Society Do?

Iche Andriyani Liberty; Mariatul Fadilah; Hari Kusnanto Josef

doi:10.22146/rpcpe.57577

Scientific Prediction of the Covid-19 Pandemic and What Should Society Do?

https://doi.org/10.22146/rpcpe.57577

Iche Andriyani Liberty^(1*), Mariatul Fadilah⁽²⁾, Hari Kusnanto Josef⁽³⁾

(1) Department of Public Health and Community Medicine; Faculty of Medicine; Universitas Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia
(2) Department of Public Health and Community Medicine; Faculty of Medicine; Universitas Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia
(3) Department of Family Medicine and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

What is the scientific prediction for the Covid-19 pandemic? Currently, as of April 8, the world’s confirmed cases have over 1.2 million, the death of more than 72 thousand. For Indonesia, today 2,738 confirmed cases, 221 deaths, and those who recovered 204.1-3. The update on April 8 today, WHO itself estimates that the Covid-19 Contagion Rate is 1.4 to 2.5. This will form the basis of predictive modeling. Several studies conducted show that currently the basic reproduction number or R0 of Covid-19 is higher than SARS. Initially in the range of 2-3 or an average of 2.5, currently R0 is 1.4 - 6.9. This is what will form the basis of modeling. R0 or the basic reproduction number shows how many people a person can become infected with. If the R0 is more than 1, we are in an epidemic status as it is today, R0 = 1 endemic, and our R0 is less than 1 we have eradicated. R0 itself consists of three components, namely p: transmission, c: number of contact, and D which is the duration of the infection itself. These calculations are the main points in modeling.

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References

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/rpcpe.57577