Scientific Prediction of the Covid-19 Pandemic and What Should Society Do?

Iche Andriyani Liberty(1*), Mariatul Fadilah(2), Hari Kusnanto Josef(3)

(1) Department of Public Health and Community Medicine; Faculty of Medicine; Universitas Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia
(2) Department of Public Health and Community Medicine; Faculty of Medicine; Universitas Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia
(3) Department of Family Medicine and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author


What is the scientific prediction for the Covid-19 pandemic? Currently, as of April 8, the world’s confirmed cases have over 1.2 million, the death of more than 72 thousand. For Indonesia,  today  2,738  confirmed cases,  221  deaths,  and those who recovered 204.1-3. The update on April 8 today, WHO itself estimates that the Covid-19 Contagion Rate is 1.4 to 2.5. This will form the basis of predictive modeling. Several studies conducted show that currently the basic reproduction number or  R0  of  Covid-19  is higher than SARS.  Initially in the range of  2-3  or an average of  2.5, currently R0 is 1.4 - 6.9. This is what will form the basis of modeling. R0 or the basic reproduction number shows how many people a person can become infected with.  If the R0 is more than 1, we are in an epidemic status as it is today, R0 = 1 endemic, and our R0 is less than 1 we have eradicated. R0 itself consists of three components, namely p: transmission, c: number of contact, and D which is the duration of the infection itself. These calculations are the main points in modeling.

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1. WHO (World Health Organization). WHO Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) Dashboard. Online from diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019. Retrieved 8 April 2020.

2. Indonesian Ministry of Health Corona Virus Update. Online from Retrieved 8 April 2020.

3. Liu Y, Gayle AA2,Wilder-Smith A.,Rocklöv J. The reproductive number of Covid-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus.J Travel Med.2020 Mar 13; 27 (2). pii: taaa021. doi: 10.1093 / jtm / taaa021.

4. Mossong, J., Hens, N., Jit, M., Beutels, P., Auranen, K., Mikolajczyk, R., & Heijne, J. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS medicine, 5 (3). 2008.

5. Lai S, Ruktanonchai N, Zhou L, Prosper O, Luo W, Floyd J. Effect of non pharmaceutical interventions for containing the Covid-19 outbreak: an observational and modeling study. medRxiv. 2020.


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