A simple epidemic model of COVID-19 and its application to Ukrainian, Indonesian, and the global data

Serhii O. Soloviov(1), Mohamad S. Hakim(2*), Iryna V. Dzyublyk(3), Serhii H. Ubohov(4), Ozar P. Mintser(5), Viktor V. Trokhymchuk(6)

(2) Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada
(*) Corresponding Author


At the beginning of 2020, one of the most significant health problems for humanity is the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, we identify features and develop simple epidemic model of COVID-19 on the basis of available epidemiological data and existing trends worldwide. Modeling of COVID-19 epidemic process was based on a classic model. A key parameter of the model, i.e. transmission parameter of SARS-CoV-2, was determined numericaly with the use of available epidemiological daily reports of COVID-19 from 17 April to 23 May 2020. Numerical determination of transmission parameter of SARS-CoV-2 according to the absolute number of COVID-19 cases in Ukraine, Indonesia and worlwide data showed its global tendency to decrease over time. Approximation of the obtained numerical values of the transmission parameter of SARS-CoV-2 was carried out using the exponential function. The results of prognostic modeling showed that by the end of summer 2020, above 30 thousand COVID-19 cases are expected in Ukraine, 100 thousand COVID-19 cases in Indonesia, and 12 million COVID-19 cases worldwide. Thus, predicting the possible consequences of the implementation of various health care control programs COVID-19 involves a comprehensive study of the epidemic process of the disease as a whole and for certain periods of time with the subsequent construction of an adequate prediction model.


COVID-19; epidemiology; mathematical modeling; prediction


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Journal of the Medical Sciences (Berkala Ilmu Kedokteran) by  Universitas Gadjah Mada is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at http://jurnal.ugm.ac.id/bik/.