Issue
Date Log
Copyright
Upon acceptance of an article, authors transfer copyright to the JIEB as part of a journal publishing agreement, but authors still have the right to share their article for personal use, internal institutional use, and for any use permitted under the CC BY-SA license
Open Access
Articles are freely available to the public without any subscription with permitted reuse. For open access articles, permitted third party (re)use is defined by the following Creative Commons user licenses: Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY-SA).
The Bank Specific Determinants of Loan Growth and Stability: Evidence from Indonesia
Corresponding Author(s) : Pananda Pasaribu
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business,
Vol 36 No 2 (2021): May
Abstract
Introduction/Main Objectives: This study aims to examine the specific determinants of loan growth and the consequences of excessive loan growth on bank stability. Background Problems: Bank loans play an important role in economic growth, but previous studies indicate that excessive loans lead to bank instability. Novelty: This study undertakes a comprehensive analysis, as it will discuss both the loan determinants and excessive loans simultaneously. Research Methods: This study covers more than 89% of the total loans of commercial banks (listed and non-listed banks) between 2002 and 2018 and it employs GMM in order to obtain robust estimations. Finding/Results: The growth of customers’ deposits and gross NPL are the most important factors in explaining loan growth in Indonesia. Banks with excessive loans tend to have high levels of credit risk. Conclusion: Banks’ liquidity and credit risk have important roles in explaining banks’ loans. However, excessive loans could lead to bank instability, particularly for small banks.
Keywords
Download Citation
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)BibTeX
- Abdelbadie, R. A., & Salama, A. (2019). Corporate governance and financial stability in US banks: Do indirect interlocks matter?. Journal of Business Research, 104, 85-105.
- Agca, S., De Nicolo, G., & Detragiache, E. (2013). Banking sector reforms and corporate leverage in emerging markets. Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 17, pp. 125-149
- Alihodzic, A. & Eksi, I. H. (2018). Credit growth and non-performing loans: evidence from Turkey and some Balkan countries. Eastern Journal of European Studies, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 229-249.
- Allen, F. & Gale, D. (2004). Financial intermediaries and markets. Econometrica, Vol. 72, No. 5, pp. 1023-1061
- Allmen, U. E. & Kang, H. (2018). Reinforcing financial stability. In Realizing Indonesia’s Economic Potential, edited by Luis Breuer, Jamie Guajardo, and Tidiane Kinda, pp. 271-300. IMF: Washington, DC.
- Amador, J. S., Gomez-Gonzales, J. E., & Pabon, A. M. (2013). Loan growth and bank risk: new evidence. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Vol. 27, No. 4, pp. 365-379
- Arcand, J. L., Berkes, E., & Panizza U. (2015). Too much finance? Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 105-148.
- Bank for International Settlements. (2019). Total Credit to Non-Financial Sector (core debt). Retrieved from: https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/f1.2?p=20133&c=
- Bank Indonesia. (2018). Financial Stability Review.
- Bank Indonesia. (2019). Glosarium. Retrieved from: https://www.bi.go.id/id/glosarium.aspx
- Bank Indonesia. (2019). Indonesian economics and financial statistics. Retrieved from: https://www.bi.go.id/en/statistik/metadata/seki/Contents/Default.aspx
- Bank Indonesia. (2019). Komite Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan. Retrieved from: https://www.bi.go.id/id/fungsi-utama/stabilitas-sistem-keuangan/manajemen-krisis/default.aspx
- Baradwaj, B. G., Flaherty, S. M. V., & Shao, Y. (2014). The impact of lending growth on the riskiness of Chinese banks. The Chinese Economy, Vol. 47, No. 5-6, pp. 29-49.
- Barajas, A. & Steiner, R. (2002). Why don’t they lend? Credit stagnation in Latin America. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, Special Issue, pp. 156-184.
- Baron, M. & Xiong W. (2017). Credit expansion and neglected crash Risk. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 132, No. 2, pp. 713-764.
- Barraza, S., Civelli, A., & Zaniboni, N. (2019). Business and the transmission of monetary policy. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 54, No. 2, pp. 925-965.
- Barseghyan, L. (2010). Non-performing loans, prospective bailouts, and Japan’s slowdown. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 57, No. 7, pp. 873-890.
- Basri, C. M. (2017) India & Indonesia: lessons learned from the 2013 taper tantrum. Bulletin of Indonesia Economic Studies, Vol. 53, No. 2, pp. 137-160.
- Beatty, A. & Liao, S. (2011). Do delays in expected loss recognition affects banks’ willingness to lend? Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 5-37.
- Beck, T., Levine, R., & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 58, pp. 261-300.
- Beck, R., Georgiadis, G., & Straub, R. (2014). The finance and growth nexus revisited. Economic Letters, Vol. 124, No. 3, pp. 382-385
- Berger, A. N. & Udell, G. F. (1994). Did risk-based capital allocate bank credit and cause a “credit crunch” in the United States. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 585-628.
- Berger, A. N, & Udell, G. F. (1998). The economics of small business finance: the roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 22, pp. 613-673.
- Berger, A. N. & Udell, G. F. (2002). Small business credit availability and relationship lending: the importance of bank organizational structure. The Economic Journal, Vol. 2002, No. 477, pp. F32-F53.
- Berger, A. N. & Udell, G. F. (2004). The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior. Journal of Financial Intermediation, Vol.13, pp.458-495.
- Berger, A. N., Clarke, G. R, Cull., R., R., Klapper, L., Udell G. (2005). Corporate governance and bank performance: a joint analysis of the static, selection, and dynamic effects of domestic, foreign, and state ownership. Journal of Banking and Finance, 29(8), pp. 2179-2221.
- Bouvatier, V. & Lepetit, L. (2008). Banks’ procyclical behaviour: does provisioning matter? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, Vol. 18, No. 5, pp. 513-526.
- Bouvatier, V. & Lepetit, L. (2012). Effects of loan loss provisions on growth in bank lending: some international comparisons. International Economics, Vol. 123, pp. 91-116.
- Bowman, D., Cai, F., Davies, S., & Kamin, S. (2015). Quantitative easing and bank lending: evidence from Japan. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 57, pp. 15-30.
- Brei, M. & Schclarek, A. (2013). Public bank lending in times of crisis. Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 820-830.
- Carbo-Valverde, S., Rodriguez-Fernandez, F., & Udell, G F. (2009). Bank market power and SME financing constraints. Review of Finance, Vol. 13, No.2, pp.309-340
- Cecchetti, S. & Kharroubi, E. (2012). Reassessing the impact of finance on growth. Bank for International Settlement Working Papers, No. 381.
- Cetorelli, N. & Gambera, M. (2001). Banking Market structure, financial dependence and growth: international evidence from industry data. The Journal of Finance, No. 56, No. 2, pp. 617-648.
- Cornett, M. M., McNutt, J. J., Strahan, P. E., & Tehranian, H. (2011). The liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial crisis. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 101, No. 2, pp. 297-312.
- Chang, E.J., Guerra, S.M., & Lima, B.M. Tabak. (2008). The stability-concentration relationship in the Brazilian banking system. International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 18, pp.388-397.
- Chen, Y., Chen, Y., Lin, C., Sharma, Z. (2016). Is there a bright side to government banks? Evidence from the global financial crisis? Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 26, pp. 128-143.
- Choi, M. J., Gutierrez, & Peria, M. S. M. (2016). Financial Markets, Institutions, and Instruments, Vol. 25, No. 5, pp. 361-398.
- Chu, Y., Zhang, D., & Zhao, Y. (2019). Bank capital and lending: evidence from syndicated loans. Journal of Financial Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 54, No, 2, pp. 667-694.
- Cucinelli, D. (2016). Can speed kill? The cyclical of rapid credit growth: evidence from bank lending behavior in Italy. The Journal of Risk Finance, Vol. 17, No. 5, pp. 562-584.
- Dhar, S., & Bakshi, A. (2015). Determinants of loan losses of Indian banks: a panel study. Journal of Asia Business Study, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 17-32.
- Davydov, D. (2018). Does state ownership of banks matter? Russian evidence from financial crisis. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 250-285.
- Diamond, D. W. & Rajan, R. G. (2000). A theory of bank capital. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 55, No. 6, pp. 2431-2465.
- Du, K., & Sim, N. (2016). Mergers, acquisitions, and bank efficiency: cross-country evidence from emerging markets. Research in International Business and Finance, 36, pp.499-510.
- Duprey, Thibaut. (2015). Do publicly owned banks lend against the wind? International Journal of Central Banking. No. 11, pp. 65-112.
- Enoch, C., Fre´caut, O., & Kovanen, A. (2003). Indonesia’s banking crisis: what happened and what did we learn? Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 75-92
- Fahlenbrach, R, Prilmeier, R., & Stulz, R. M. (2018). Why does fast loan growth predict poor performance for banks? The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. (31), No. (3), pp. 1014-1063.
- Fang, Y., Hasan I., & Marton, K. (2014). Institutional development and bank stability: evidence from transition countries. Journal of Banking and Finance, 39, pp.160-176.
- Federal Reserve. (2019). Open Market Operations. Retrieved from: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2019). Economic Data. Retrieved from: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCUSSP02IDQ650N
- Feldkircher, M. (2014). The Determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008–2009: credit growth & other sources of risk. Journal of International Money and Finance. Vol. 43, pp. 19–49.
- Foos, D, Norden, L., & Weber, M. (2010). Loan growth and riskiness of banks. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 34, No. 12, pp. 2929-2940.
- Flannery, M. J., & Rangan, K. P. (2008). What caused the bank capital build-up of the 1990s?. Review of Finance, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 391-429
- Ghosh, A. (2015). Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: evidence from US states. Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 20, pp. 93-104.
- Goetz, M.R. (2018). Competition and bank stability. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 35, pp. 57-69.
- Gorton, G., & Winton, A. (2017). Liquidity provision, bank capital and the macroeconomy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 5-37.
- Guo, K., & Stepanyan, V. (2011). Determinants of bank credit in emerging market economies. IMF Working Paper, Vol. 51.
- Hamada, M. (2018). Impact of foreign bank entry on SME credit in the Indonesian banking sector. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 35(1), pp. 50-78.
- Ivashina, V., & Scharfstein, D. (2010). Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 97, No. 3, pp. 319-338.
- Jemric, I., & Vujcic, B. 2002. Efficiency of banks in Croatia: a DEA approach. Comparative Economic Studies, 44, 169-193.
- Jimenez, G. & Saurina, J. (2006). Credit cycles, credit risk, and prudential regulation. International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 65-98.
- Kaminsky, G. L., & Reinhart, C. M. (1999). The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems. American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No. 3, pp. 473-500.
- Kashyap, A. K., & Stein, J. C. (2000). What do a million observation on banks say about the transmission of monetary policy? American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 3, pp. 407-428.
- Kashyap, A. K., Rajan, R., & Jeremy C. Stein. (2002). banks as liquidity providers: an explanation for the coexistence of lending and deposit-taking. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 57, No. 1, pp. 33-73.
- Kaufmann, S. & Valderrama, M. T. (2008). Bank lending in Germany and the UK: are there differences between a bank-based and a market-based country. International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 13, pp. 266-279.
- Kay, John. (2007, September 8). Economists of Scale. Financial Times. Retrieved from: https://www.ft.com/content/5fa9da48-5b5e-11dc-8c32-0000779fd2ac
- Keeton, W. (1999). Does faster loan growth lead to higher loan losses? Economic Review (Kansas City), Vol. 84, No. 2, pp. 57-75.
- Khan, M. S., Scheule, H., & Wu, E. (2017). Funding liquidity and bank risk taking. Journal of Banking & Finance, 82, 203-216.
- Kim, D. & Sohn, W. (2017). The effect of bank capital on lending: does liquidity matter? Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 95-107.
- Klomp, J., & Haan, J. (2012). Banking risk and regulation: does one size fit all? Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 3197-3212.
- Kracaw, W., & Zenner, M. (1996). The wealth effects of bank financing announcements in highly leveraged transactions. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, No. 5, pp. 1931-1946.
- Laidroo, L., & Mannasoo, K. (2017). Do credit commitments compromise credit quality? Research in International Business and Finance, Vol. 41, pp. 303-317.
- Laeven, L., & Majnoni, G. (2003). Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late? Journal of Financial Intermediation, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 178-197.
- Lassoued, N., H. Sassi, & M. B. R. Attia. (2016). The impact of state and foreign ownership on banking risk: evidence from the MENA countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 36, pp. 167-1178.
- Law, S. H., & Singh, N. (2014). Does Too Much Finance Harm Economic Growth? Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 41, pp. 36-44.
- Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan. (2019). Fungsi, Tugas, & Wewenang Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan (LPS). Retrieved from: https://lps.go.id/web/guest/fungsi-tugas-wewenang
- Leroy, A., & Lucotte, Y. (2019). Competition and credit procyclicality in European banking. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 99, pp. 237-251.
- Lin, X., & Y. Zhang. (2009). Bank ownership reform and bank performance in China. Journal of Banking and Finance, 33, pp. 20-29.
- Louzis, D. P., Vouldis, A. T., & Metaxas, V. L. (2012). Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loans portfolios. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp.1012-1027.
- Macit, F. (2012). What determines the non-performing loans ratio: evidence from Turkish commercial banks. CEA Journal of Economics, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 33-39.
- Mulyaningsih, T. Daly, A., A., Miranti, R. (2015) Foreign participation and banking competition: evidence from the Indonesian banking industry. Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 70-82.
- Mosebach, M. (1999). Market response to banks granting lines of credit. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 23, No. 11, pp. 1707-1723.
- Nasution, A. (2015). Macroeconomic Policies in Indonesia: Indonesia Economy since the Asian Crisis of 1997. Routledge: New York.
- Nijsken, R., & Wagner, W. (2011). Credit risk transfer activities and systemic risk: how banks became less risky individually but posed greater risks to the financial system at the same time. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 35, No. 6, pp. 1391-1398.
- Novellyni, D., & M. Ulpah. (2017). Non- performing loans, moral hazard and lending behavior of Indonesian banks. International Journal of Economics and Management, 11 (S2), pp. 365-378.
- Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2016). Peraturan OJK Nomor 18/POJK.03/2014. Jakarta.
- Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2019). Vision and Mission. Retrieved from: https://www.ojk.go.id/en/tentang-ojk/Pages/Visi-Misi.aspx
- Olivero, M. P., Li, Y., & Jeon, B. N. (2011). Competition in banking and the lending channel: evidence from bank-level data in Asia and Latin America. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 560-571.
- Papadamou, S, Philippas, D., Firas, B., Ntitoras, T. (2018). Abnormal lending and risk in Swedish financial institutions. Review of Accounting and Finance, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 498-513.
- Rajan, R. G. (1994). Why bank credit policies fluctuate: a theory and some evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol. 109, Issue (2), pp. 399-441.
- Rajan, R. G. & Zingales, L. (1998). Financial dependence and growth. The American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 559-586.
- Rokhim, R., & A. P. Susanto. (2013). the increase of foreign ownership and its impact on the performance, competition and risk in the Indonesian banking industry. Asian Journal of Business and Accounting, 6(2), pp. 137-2013.
- Santoso, Wimboh. (2000). Indonesia’s financial and corporate sector reform. Bank Indonesia: Working Paper.
- Simamora, Novita Sari. (2018, December 27). KSEI: Jumlah Investor Pasar Modal Tumbuh 44% Sepanjang 2018. Bisnis Indonesia. Retrieved from: https://market.bisnis.com/read/20181227/7/873383/ksei-jumlah-investor-pasar-modal-tumbuh-44-sepanjang-2018
- Soedarmono, W., Sitorus, D., & Tarazi, A. (2017). Abnormal loan growth, credit information sharing and systemic risks in asian banks. Research in International Business and Finance, Vol. 42, pp. 1208-1218.
- Stern, G. & Feldman, R. (2004). Too big to fail: the hazards of bank bailouts. The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.
- Stiglitz, J. E. (1993). The role of the state in financial markets. The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 7, suppl. 1, pp. 19-52
- Triggs, A., Kacaribu, F., & Wang, J. (2019). Risks, resilience, and reforms: Indonesia’s financial system in 2019. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Vol. 55, No. 1, pp. 1-27.
- Thakor, V. A. (1996). Capital requirements, monetary policy, and aggregate bank lending: theory and empirical evidence. Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 279-324.
- Vithessonthi, C. (2016). Deflation, bank credit growth, and non-performing loans: evidence from Japan. International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol. 45, pp. 295-305.
- Williams, B. (2014). Banks risks and national governance in Asia. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 49, pp. 10-26.
- Williamson, Stephen. (2017). quantitative easing: how well does this tool work? Regional Economist. Retrieved from: https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/third-quarter-2017/quantitative-easing-how-well-does-this-tool-work
- World Bank. (2019). World Bank Open Data. Retrieved from: https://data.worldbank.org/
- Zemel, M. (2018). The information content of loan growth in banks. Quarterly Journal of Finance, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 1-32.